The Case For The Phillies To Trade Ken Giles

Phillies closer Ken Giles is undoubtedly one of the best closers in all of baseball.

While he’s not quite a household name yet, he will be. His stats in 2015 rivaled that of any of the high powered closers in either league.

His overpowering fastball, incredible slider, and effective changeup are everything the Phillies could have hoped, especially as he has learned to hone his control. He didn’t fill in when All-Star Jonathan Papelbon was traded to the Nationals last summer: he was an improvement over one of the most effective closers in baseball in the past five years.

But a closer has limitations. Especially a high-powered closer like Giles, who routinely hits 100 on the radar gun. Closers throw for one inning. Occasionally for two. And they are most valuable to teams that intend on competing for a World Series title.

The Phillies are improving, but they aren’t ready to throw all their eggs in the basket in 2016. Meanwhile, over a dozen teams around the league are looking to seriously compete, and could absolutely use a shutdown closer like Giles. Especially since he isn’t owed a lot of money the next few years.

If those teams are willing to part with multiple position players or starting pitchers in exchange for Giles, the Phillies should have no questions about pulling the trigger.

Consider the rumors floating about the Houston Astros considering parting with Vincent Velasquez and Lance McCullers, two highly regarded pitching prospects who debuted in the majors last season, in exchange for Giles.

Receiving guys like McCullers or Velasquez isn’t a bet on the long term future. They are both comparable prospects to Aaron Nola and would make an immediate and huge impact on the Phillies starting rotation in 2016 and beyond.

A rotation of Nola, Jake Thompson (acquired in exchange for Cole Hamels), Jared Eickhoff (also a Hamels return), McCullers, and Velasquez could hypothetically be the best in all of baseball in two or three years.

It could also be the worst, but that’s the nature of prospecting prospects.

Regardless, two starting pitchers, even if they have the ceiling of a number two or three starter, are significantly more valuable than one closer. Even if that closer is great, and especially if the team has a hole in their rotation, which the Phillies do.

As the Phillies young core continues to develop and expand - aided by a number one overall draft pick next June - they can shop for a replacement for Giles next off season or even later next season.

The Astros aren’t the only potential suitor that could give the Phillies a huge payoff in return for Giles. The Cubs one notable area of need is the bullpen, and they have a glut of Major League-ready prospects that could speed along the Phillies rebuilding process. They’ve also expressed interest. A return of prospects like Javier Baez and Albert Almora for Giles is not out of the question.

Giles is homegrown, young, owed no money, and seems to be headed toward an All Star career. He’ll still be around when the Phillies are competitive again, and a reluctance to part with him is understandable. The argument to trade him is less about how great he is, but rather about how overvalued the position of closer is in general.

One shutdown inning three or four times a week does not equate to the value of two starters throwing six or seven innings of two or three run ball, per week. And a closer doesn’t come closer to the value of a good everyday player. Especially not for a team that has an eye toward 2017 more than 2016, and especially not for a team that has money to spend.

Aroldis Chapman, will, after all, be a free agent again in 2017.