RI Weather Forecast: Drier Weather Expected Through Weekend

Weather Forecast & Discussion for Rhode Island on December 2, 2016

“The First Forty-Eight”

• Friday: Partly sunny and cooler, with highs in the upper 40’s. Winds W-WNW 9-12 mph. A sprinkle before 8 p.m., then partly cloudy. Lows in the middle 30’s.
• Saturday: Mostly sunny and breezy, with highs in the middle 40’s. Winds NW at 13-16 mph. Clear skies at night, with lows near 30.

Forecast Discussion:

Most of Rhode Island received a good soaking of rain over the last few days. Westerly received just over 2.50 inches of rain, and T.F. Green Airport in Warwick received just over 2 inches. Now, we will enjoy a mostly dry weather pattern entering the weekend. But, temperatures will be slightly below normal for this time of the year.

Despite a low centered in the Gulf of Maine, high pressure over Louisiana is giving us a ridge of dry air over Southern New England. But, we will see some low level cloud cover by the afternoon during Friday. This moisture is due to another low pressure system centered over Quebec, Canada. Some of the moisture from the low may move over the Ocean State during the afternoon and early evening. In fact, some areas may see an isolated sprinkle during the evening commute. So, I will call for partly sunny skies for the day, with daytime temperatures reaching the upper 40’s. The moisture moves off to the east Friday night, so we return to clear skies. However, colder air aloft will help bring our temperatures down into the middle 30’s. As the high moves slightly northeast, it will also move closer to that low pressure system over Quebec on Saturday. We will keep our sunny skies, but the winds will increase and become breezy. Therefore, high temperatures will be cooler, with the mercury only reaching the middle 40’s. Winds will diminish Saturday night, as the high moves further east, and the low continues to move away from our area, relaxing the pressure gradient. We keep clear skies, and temperatures will fall into the upper 20’s to near 30.

The high pressure center will slowly move east on Sunday, and we will remain under its influence. We will keep sunny skies, but high temperatures will struggle to reach the lower to middle 40’s. Skies remain clear Sunday night, but it will become chilly, as low temperatures fall into the middle to upper 20’s. Entering early Monday morning, some low level moisture from a disturbance passing through Quebec, Canada will bring us mostly cloudy skies for Monday. However, the European model believes we will see some decent rainfall, as it believes there is more moisture associated with this low. At the moment, the other models I look at, the United Kingdom and Canadian models, are not showing any precipitation, nor that much low level moisture for precipitation. So, I will call for mostly cloudy skies, as I do not see how the European model is getting to its solution. High temperatures are only expected to reach the lower 40’s. High pressure ridging moves right over the area Monday night, returning us to clear skies. Temperatures will fall into the middle to upper 20’s.

The next chance for some rainfall will be by the evening commute on Tuesday. A low pressure system suppressed in the Southeast U.S. on Monday will slowly move northeast towards the Mid-Atlantic coast. The low may create strong winds after 8 p.m., especially along the south coast. Showers arrive by 6 p.m., with possible moderate rain into Wednesday morning. High pressure to our north seems to push the heavier rain out to sea. So, this is something I will watch over the next few days. Highs on Tuesday reach the middle 40’s, with lows Tuesday night staying in the middle 30’s. The rain ends briefly through the daytime hours Wednesday, with partial sunshine and highs in the middle 40’s. After Wednesday, my overall confidence in the forecast is quite low. The computer models have all different scenarios for Wednesday night into next Thursday.

The American model is the “worst case” scenario, bringing a cold front through Wednesday night into Thursday. We would start off with showers by 2 p.m., with heavier rainfall. But, with temperatures falling to freezing, I am not sure if it would stay all rain, or a mix of rain and snow showers. It would depend on where the cold air is in the lower levels of the atmosphere. We would then stay cold enough for a wintry mix through most of Thursday. However, the other three computer models keep the low in the Ohio River Valley for most of Thursday. So, we would not see any precipitation until next Thursday night or next Friday. For now, I do not believe the American model, since the high that is protecting us is too far north of the other three models, and gets “pushed” far too easily. I will keep us with dry conditions Wednesday night, with lows in the middle 30’s. We will have mostly cloudy skies next Thursday, with highs rising into the upper 40’s.

Jim Laurie is a local meteorologist who earned a B.S. in Meteorology at Lyndon State College in Lyndonville, VT. Jim has fifteen years of professional experience, with eight years in the field of marine meteorology.