Gray skies, drizzle, fog will persist into tomorrow night; steadier precipitation arrives Thursday night into Friday

Weather Forecast Discussion for Rhode Island on September 29, 2016

Well, although the calendar says it is the last week of September, it feels more like early April outside. The grey skies and breezy northeast winds have temperatures barely making it into the lower 60’s. In fact, 63 degrees is the high for the day on Wednesday. This damp, raw weather pattern will continue into the end of the week, with the hopes of seeing some sunshine starting on Monday.

At the moment, a strong upper-level low over the Ohio River Valley is the real reason we are having this cool weather. Along with it, a surface high pressure system to our north, along with a low pressure system to our south, is helping to create the breezy northeast winds. This is allowing moisture off the ocean to move back over the inland area. It also keeps cooler air mixing with the damp air, making overcast skies, along with patchy drizzle. Since the temperature and the dewpoint are so close together, we will also see patchy fog late this evening, especially along the south coast.

So, we will keep patchy drizzle and fog in the forecast for tonight, along with that northeast wind. Expect low temperatures in the middle 50’s. We will see more of the same for Thursday, with patchy fog burning off before 9 a.m. High temperatures will be in the lower 60’s. By Thursday night, a surface low pressure system coming up from North Carolina will bring more moisture to the south coast. We will see steadier shower and light rain activity after midnight at the coast, and over Providence by 2 a.m. as it moves northward. Look for lows in the middle 50’s.

Despite high pressure over Maine, the moisture will continue to try to push northward through Friday. Steadier rain and showers will continue into the morning, with the precipitation becoming lighter through the afternoon. Look for highs in the lower 60’s, with showers continuing into Saturday night. Lows will be in the upper 50’s. Highs on Saturday will be in the middle 60’s. Some parts of Southern New England could see up to 2 inches of rainfall by the time the week is over.

By Sunday, the risk for showers will continue to lower, as that low slowly moving north from North Carolina passes to our east. As the low over Ohio also weakens, we will see some weak sunshine through the stratus clouds by the late afternoon. It will remain overcast, with highs reaching the upper 60’s. Except for a widely isolated shower Sunday night, we will see partial clearing entering sunrise, with lows in the upper 50’s.

We will see some peeks of sunshine on Monday, as we continue to rid ourselves of the low-level moisture. However, it will not rain, and highs will be in the upper 60’s. High pressure over Quebec Monday night will provide us with partly cloudy skies and lows in the middle 50’s.

We finish the forecast with the weather for Tuesday and next Wednesday. The high will provide us with mostly sunny weather on Tuesday, with highs in the middle 60’s. We will see partly cloudy skies Tuesday night, with lows in the lower 50’s. By Wednesday, we start off with sunshine, with increasing clouds by the evening.

Tropical Update: The area being watched on Monday has now become Tropical Storm Matthew, as of 11 a.m. At the 2 p.m. update, Matthew was only 25 miles southwest of St. Lucia. Maximum sustained winds are at 60 mph, and is moving west-northwest at 20 mph. Tropical Storm Warnings are already in effect for many of the islands in this general vicinity. The system is forecast to become a hurricane within 48 hours, and reach sustained winds of 105 mph within 5 days. The system will track slightly west-southwest after 60 hours, before turning quickly north-northwest towards southeast Jamaica on 8 a.m. Monday.

Although it is still many days out, the main concern for us is this system may move over Jamaica and Cuba, then steer northward. Some models have the low actually making it to the east coast (see slideshow picture #3). Also, some models have the system moving north as far as New York City by October 9th. So, everyone along the east coast, as well as Southern New England, should keep listening to weather forecasts over the next several days. I will keep you updated on Matthew on the next forecast discussion.

Jim Laurie is a local meteorologist who earned a B.S. in Meteorology at Lyndon State College in Lyndonville, VT. Jim has fifteen years of professional experience, with eight years in the field of marine meteorology.