Mild Temperatures Ahead For Midweek; Rain Expected Thursday Evening; Cool Weather On Weekend

Weather Forecast Discussion for Rhode Island on November 2, 2016

I hope everyone enjoyed their Halloween, and the sugar rush that came with it. Now, we entered November taking the frost of our cars on Tuesday morning. But, if you want to enjoy some warmer weather, just wait for the middle of the week. But, we will return to reality by Friday.

High pressure will begin to move offshore, and by this evening, a few extra clouds will be taking over our skies. The cloud cover is due to a passing low pressure system moving quickly out of Quebec, Canada. We will only see mostly cloudy skies, and low temperatures will be warmer, falling into the lower 40’s. We will have some sunshine between the cloud cover on Wednesday, and it will be milder, with highs reaching the middle 60’s. The milder temperatures are due to the winds shifting to the southwest, along with a quick moving upper-level ridge over the eastern U.S. This will allow warmer air from the south to move northward. We will keep overcast skies Wednesday night, keeping that mild air. Look for low temperatures to only fall into the lower 50’s.

The computer models continue to disagree on the timing of a low pressure system moving in from the Great Lakes. The European and American models agree on the position of the low at 8 a.m. Thursday morning. But, the precipitation with the lows has timing differences. The American model brings more rain by the evening, while the European model believes we will see showers by the morning. The American model has been more consistent in its previous model runs over the last 48 hours. So, we will see isolated showers by the late afternoon, with showers arriving by 7 p.m. We will see steadier rain and possibly a thunderstorm into Thursday morning. It will remain mild, with highs in the upper 60’s, with lows falling into the lower 40’s into Friday morning.

As we enter Friday, temperatures will actually be slightly below normal. High pressure ridging will clear our skies, but the pressure gradient between the departing low and incoming ridge will create blustery winds. Look for high temperatures to only be in the lower 50’s, despite the sunshine. High pressure over the Ohio River Valley and Southern Plains will keep us dry right through the weekend. There is the slight chance for a passing shower Sunday afternoon, due to ocean effect showers from a developing low pressure system offshore. However, my confidence on Sunday’s forecast is low, as only the United Kingdom model shows a low, but it is much weaker and over Northern New England. For now, I will call it partly sunny. High temperatures for the weekend will be in the lower 50’s, with lows in the upper 30’s. Also, do not forget to turn the clocks back one hour at 2 a.m. on Sunday morning.

We return to partly cloudy weather for Monday, as a high pressure system over Georgia brings a strong ridge into New England. We will keep temperatures into the lower 50’s, with lows in the middle to upper 30’s. This high will keep sunny skies on Election Day, with highs in the lower to middle 50’s.

Jim Laurie is a local meteorologist who earned a B.S. in Meteorology at Lyndon State College in Lyndonville, VT. Jim has fifteen years of professional experience, with eight years in the field of marine meteorology.