RI Weather: Precipitation Tapers Off; Sunny Tuesday; More Showers Tuesday Night

Weather Forecast & Discussion for Rhode Island on December 6, 2016

“The First Forty-Eight”

• Tuesday: Sunny in the early morning, with increasing clouds. Showers arrive after 8 p.m. with light rain during the overnight. Highs in the middle 40’s, with ENE winds 6-9 mph. Lows in the middle 30’s.
• Wednesday: Rain tapers to scattered showers by 9 a.m., with precipitation tapering off after 3 p.m. Highs in the middle 40’s, with SW-WSW winds 3-6 mph. Partly to mostly cloudy during the overnight, with lows in the lower to middle 30’s.

Forecast Discussion:

Well, this morning’s weather in Rhode Island could be seen in two different ways. Some people will see it as a winter wonderland, making it feel more like Christmas. Others might see it as too soon for snowfall. It made for a long morning commute, with some spinouts on the roadways. As we move through this afternoon, warmer air slowly moves south to north. This will help change any leftover precipitation to just plain drizzle and showers. Any precipitation will end by the mid-afternoon, and we may even see a little sunshine before sunset. By tonight, high pressure will move into western Connecticut, giving us clear skies and lows in the upper 20’s.

We will begin Tuesday with sunshine, as the high pressure system moves off into Canada. Look for highs to reach the lower 40’s. But, a low pressure system moving up the coast of North Carolina will bring increasing clouds through the afternoon. We will see some showers arrive after 8 p.m., with some heavier precipitation during the overnight. This time, with enough warm air at the surface, the precipitation will remain as rain. Look for lows to fall into the middle 30’s. By Wednesday morning, the low will be south of us, but a new disturbance over central Canada will provide us with scattered showers through the morning and early afternoon. Precipitation will end by the late afternoon, and we will remain with partly to mostly cloudy skies Wednesday night. Look for highs in the middle 40’s, with lows in the lower to middle 30’s.

We will see some partial sunshine on Thursday, as some low level moisture remains over Southern New England. Despite a weak high pressure ridge moving over the region, a weak disturbance will remain southeast of Southern New England. Highs will be in the lower to middle 40’s. On Thursday night, there is the chance for some isolated rain showers. A low pressure system will begin to develop and intensify south of Nova Scotia, and the computer models do bring some precipitation back over eastern Massachusetts and eastern Rhode Island. However, any shower activity ends by midnight. Polar air will also come through during the overnight, making for colder temperatures on the weekend. Low temperatures will reach 30 degrees.

A strong ridge of high pressure will be coming down from the central U.S., and it will bring polar air along with it. So, we will have sunny skies come Friday, but we will have breezy northwest winds. With colder air in place, high temperatures will struggle to reach 40. Winds chills will make it feel like the upper 20’s to lower 30’s. Skies will become partly cloudy Friday night, but it will remain blustery. Low temperatures will fall into the middle 20’s, and wind chills will make it feel like the middle teens. Winds will diminish entering Saturday, as a high pressure center moves over the Carolinas by the afternoon. Unfortunately, it will not help warm our temperatures, as highs for the day will only be near freezing. Skies become clear Saturday night, with lows in the upper teens to lower 20’s.

We will start off with mostly sunny skies Sunday morning, before the high begins to move off the coast. Look for highs in the middle 30’s. A low pressure system will move east, bringing increasing clouds through the afternoon. Snow showers would begin after 10 p.m., and then change over to rain after 9 a.m. At this time, the American model shows a second low forming south of us, with the center moving over us by 7 a.m. We may see some heavier rainfall into noon, before the low moves offshore, and the precipitation tapers off. At this time, the American model is the only model showing this scenario. So, my confidence in the forecast after Sunday is quite low. Highs next Monday are forecast to reach the lower 40’s.

Jim Laurie is a local meteorologist who earned a B.S. in Meteorology at Lyndon State College in Lyndonville, VT. Jim has fifteen years of professional experience, with eight years in the field of marine meteorology.