RI Weather Forecast: Rain Tuesday, And Staying Mild Until Wednesday Night

Weather Forecast & Discussion for Rhode Island on January 3, 2017

“The First Forty-Eight”

• Tuesday: Rain, heavy at times, especially during the early afternoon. Patchy fog expected during the early afternoon. Highs will be in the middle 40’s with ENE winds of 14-18 mph. Rain tapers to showers, with lows in the upper 30’s.
• Wednesday: Showers end by 4 a.m., with mostly sunny skies by noon. Highs in the upper 40’s, but dropping by the late afternoon. Winds will come from the WSW at 7-10 mph. Expect partly cloudy skies at night with lows in the middle 20’s.

Forecast Discussion:

I hope everyone enjoyed their New Year’s celebrations, as we begin to return to the reality of work and school once again tomorrow. We had cloud cover over the Ocean State for most of Monday, thanks in part to moisture from a low pressure system off the coast of North Carolina. In fact, parts of the south coast saw a few sprinkles Monday morning.

As we head into Tuesday, a much stronger low pressure system will move over Ohio by the late morning. Showers and light rain will become more widespread by the early afternoon. High temperatures will reach the middle 40’s. But, that low off the Carolina coastline will be the one that gives us all the rainfall moving through Tuesday night. A warm front will accompany the low, and temperatures will not cool off too much. I am expecting lows to only be in the lower 40’s. Rain will taper off to showers, with all precipitation ending by 4 a.m. High pressure ridging will bring drier air into the atmosphere, allowing us to see mostly sunny skies by the afternoon. Temperatures will still be mild, with highs near 50. But, colder air behind a strong cold front will help lower temperatures through the late afternoon and early evening. We will return to normal overnight lows Wednesday night, falling into the middle 20’s, with partly cloudy skies.

Strong high pressure ridging to our south and west will give us mostly sunny skies for Thursday. But, it will not be mild, as high temperatures reach the middle 30’s. With a weak disturbance moving south of us Thursday night, we will have mostly cloudy skies, with lows in the lower 20’s. As we enter Friday, the computer models are trying to develop a low pressure system off the coast of South Carolina. But, the actual placement and track of this low is still to be determined. Many models push the low out to sea, while the European model keeps it further northwest. This would mean we would see some type of precipitation, which would come in the form of snow. But, because the low is so far offshore, we would only see flurries to light snow, at best. Accumulations would only be about 1-2 inches. However, this forecast has to be watched over the next couple of days. For now, I do not see any precipitation at the moment. So, I will call for partly sunny skies for Friday, with highs near freezing. Skies become partly cloudy Friday night, as the low moves into the Canadian Maritimes. Low temperatures will fall into the lower 20’s.

A strong high pressure system over Michigan on Saturday will influence our weather entering the first weekend of 2017. We will see mostly sunny skies with highs in the lower 30’s. The high will move eastward Saturday night, and keep another strong low developing in the Southeast U.S. from having precipitation reach Southern New England. We will keep partly cloudy skies, with lows falling into the middle teens. The high will continue to keep its ridge over Rhode Island into next Monday. Sunday will remain mostly sunny, with highs in the upper 20’s. Lows Sunday night will be in the lower teens. Highs next Monday will be in the middle 20’s.

Jim Laurie is a local meteorologist who earned a B.S. in Meteorology at Lyndon State College in Lyndonville, VT. Jim has fifteen years of professional experience, with eight years in the field of marine meteorology.