RI Weather: Showers/Rain Tuesday Night; Mixed Precipitation North of Providence Possible

Weather Forecast & Discussion for Rhode Island on January 17, 2017

“The First Forty-Eight”

• Tuesday: Increasing clouds through the morning, with rain showers starting by 4 p.m. Highs will be in the lower 40’s, with ENE winds at 5-8 mph. Rain expected tomorrow night, with the risk of some snow showers/freezing rain north of Providence into the northwest part of the state. Lows will be in the middle 30’s.
• Wednesday: Rain tapers off to showers and drizzle through the late morning and afternoon. Skies remain overcast, with highs in the lower to middle 40’s. Winds will come from the N at 9-12 mph. Overcast skies Wednesday night, with lows in the lower 30’s.

Forecast Discussion:

High pressure coming off the New Jersey coastline has given the Ocean State great weather during the holiday weekend. Also, temperatures have been above normal, with highs staying near 40 the last couple of days. This will be helpful by tomorrow, as any precipitation will remain as rain. Although the precipitation will not change over to snow in the entire state Tuesday night, north of Providence may see the precipitation start as snow showers and mix or change over to freezing rain. This will make for a messy commute Wednesday morning. Rain tapers off through the morning, with just isolated to scattered showers through the afternoon. This is due to the low’s center moving south of Martha’s Vineyard by the late morning. Look for highs to reach the lower to middle 40’s. Weak high pressure ridging tries to move in from the south Wednesday night, but low level moisture still over Northern New England will keep us under overcast skies. Any puddles in the street may freeze, as low temperatures will hover near freezing.

Low level moisture will still be hanging around in the lower levels of the atmosphere on Thursday. So, we may see a few peeks of sunshine; otherwise, expect mostly cloudy skies. High temperatures remain steady, as it climbs into the lower 40’s. We will see a few more breaks in the clouds Thursday night, so I will call it partly cloudy. Lows will fall into the lower 30’s. We will see some sunshine Friday morning, before a low pressure system over Indiana brings back more moisture into our atmosphere. We will see limited sunshine through the afternoon, with highs in the lower 40’s. A low pressure system forming just off the coast of Virginia could provide us with some showers by 3 a.m. early Saturday morning. At this time, it could start as some snow showers. My confidence in Friday night/Saturday’s forecast is low at this time, as the computer models do not agree on how much moisture is actually with this low. The European model believes there is more than enough low level moisture to produce precipitation for much of New England. The American model has little precipitation with the low, and keeps all of the precipitation south of us. For now, I will call for highs Saturday to be near 40. Any showers end by 9 p.m. Saturday evening, with slowly clearing skies. Lows will fall into the upper 20’s.

A high pressure system over Nova Scotia, Canada will keep a decent ridge over Southern New England for Sunday. This ridge will try to hold off a very strong low developing over in the central U.S. Many people will want to know the forecast, as the New England Patriots play for the AFC Championship at 6:40 p.m. At the moment, the weather looks good for tailgating, as I am expecting partly to mostly sunny skies with highs in the middle 40’s. Temperatures will be in the upper 30’s by halftime. The frontal boundary associated with that low moves north into Rhode Island by 3 p.m. next Monday afternoon. Rain may become heavier by the evening. Highs will rise into the middle to possibly upper 40’s.

Jim Laurie is a local meteorologist who earned a B.S. in Meteorology at Lyndon State College in Lyndonville, VT. Jim has fifteen years of professional experience, with eight years in the field of marine meteorology.