RI Weather: Significant Accumulations Expected, Especially In Newport County

Weather Forecast & Discussion for Rhode Island on January 8, 2017

“The First Forty-Eight”

• Saturday: Light snow becoming moderate to heavy by 2 p.m. Winds from the N at 10-15 mph. Highs will be in the lower to middle 20’s. Expect 6-9 inches before midnight. Snow lightens, but continues until 3 a.m. Lows will be in the middle teens. Another 1-2 inches is possible before ending. Newport County could see between 12-15 inches by tomorrow morning.
• Sunday: Partly sunny and cold. There is the chance for a few snow squalls between 6 to 9 p.m. Highs will be in the lower 20’s, with NW winds of 9-12 mph. Clear skies after midnight and very cold, with lows between 7-10 degrees.

Forecast Discussion:

A low pressure system off the coast of North Carolina is beginning to bring light snow into all of Rhode Island. Light snow will become heavier between 1-2 p.m., as high level winds move over southern Connecticut help enhance the dynamics in our atmosphere. Also, due to the colder temperatures, this will help create heavier snowfall. Everyone has heard about the ratio of one inch of rain is equivalent to 10 inches of snow. Well, when the air is colder, the atmosphere cannot hold on to as much moisture. So, that ratio would actually increase. In today’s case, we are looking at a 12.5 to 1 ratio.

This will mean higher snow totals. A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for all of Rhode Island from now until 1 a.m. Sunday morning. The heaviest snow is predicted to fall from 2 p.m. until 9 p.m. Snowfall rates of an inch per hour is expected. The low is expected to stay south and east of Southern New England, hence we will remain all snow. Because of the track of the storm, the heaviest amounts of snow will be located at Block Island and Newport. As you head further east, south of Boston, the Cape, and Islands have a Blizzard Warning in effect, with wind gusts of 40 mph and snowfall totals of 12-15 inches is expected. Snowfall will become lighter after 9 p.m., and will not end until 3 a.m. By the time we see the strong snowfall end, 6-9 inches will already be in the ground. I am expecting another 1-2 inches between 9 p.m. and 3 a.m. Temperatures will be in the middle teens this evening, but the snow will remain fluffy and light. I’m looking at a total snowfall of 7-11 inches across most of the state, but Newport County is predicted to receive 12-15 inches.

By the time we wake up Sunday, we will have to begin digging ourselves out. But, we will have partly to mostly sunny skies with a northwest wind. Temperatures, however, will remain cold, with the mercury only rising into the lower 20’s. There is the chance for a few snow squalls to reach us after 6 p.m., as a weak cold front pushes through the region. With the snow pack helping to keep the ground from absorbing any of the sun’s radiation, it will be extremely cold Sunday night, especially when skies clear after midnight. Overnight lows will fall to between 7-10 degrees. However, with light winds, there will not be much of a wind chill.

By Monday, high pressure over North Carolina will bring mostly sunny skies, but temperatures will only reach the lower 20’s. We will see increasing clouds by the early evening, due to a weak area of low pressure over Quebec, Canada. We will not see any precipitation but skies will remain overcast. Thanks to the cloud cover, our temperatures will not drop very much, as lows only fall to around 20. Winds will also begin to turn to the southwest, allowing for warmer air to return to Southern New England. We will feel the difference on Tuesday, as high temperatures will climb into the lower 40’s. A strong warm front from a system in the central U.S. will also bring the risk for some rain showers by 3 p.m. We will continue to see showers into Tuesday night, with lows in the upper 30’s. Showers become more scattered during the morning commute on Wednesday, with steadier precipitation expected before noon. The cold front from this low will be to our west by this time, and I am predicting more moisture will be just ahead of the front. Look for high temperatures in the upper 40’s. Showers will taper off and all precipitation ends by midnight. It will remain overcast, with lows near freezing.

We will keep partly sunny skies for Thursday, with the risk for scattered rain showers by the evening commute. Another warm front to our west will help enhance the shower activity. Look for highs in the upper 40’s. Showers and drizzle are possible Thursday night, but the models are unsure if there is enough moisture behind the warm front to create the showers. So, I will call for overcast skies Thursday night, with a low near 40. The cold front from the same system will pass over us on Friday, creating the risk for scattered showers by 2 p.m. We will continue to have mild temperatures, with highs near 50. Any showers will end before midnight. Lows will fall into the lower 30’s. We may see another risk for more rain showers by Saturday afternoon, with highs in the middle 40’s.

Jim Laurie is a local meteorologist who earned a B.S. in Meteorology at Lyndon State College in Lyndonville, VT. Jim has fifteen years of professional experience, with eight years in the field of marine meteorology.