RI Weather Outlook: Sunny Today, but Rain in Forecast

Weather Forecast & Discussion for Rhode Island on November 28, 2016

“The First Forty-Eight”

• Monday: Sunny, mid 40’s, NW winds 7-10 mph. Increasing clouds Monday night, middle 30’s.
• Tuesday: Rain after 8 a.m., SSW winds 10-15 mph, highs upper 50’s. Rain ends by midnight, mid 40’s.

Forecast Discussion:

After a holiday weekend of gray weather and much needed showers, we had some sunshine Sunday morning, before increasing clouds took over the skies in the afternoon. High pressure moving off the coast of North Carolina will provide us with sunny skies for Monday. As we move into Monday night, we will begin to see some high and mid-level clouds take over the skies. The moisture is coming from a strong warm front moving into the Mid-Atlantic early Tuesday morning. A few showers are possible by 4 a.m., with heavier rainfall by mid-morning. A new low will form along the front Tuesday afternoon, and work its way into Southern New England after the evening commute. How much rainfall we receive will depend on the track of the low. At this time, the low’s center will move into the Gulf of Maine by Tuesday night. So, all rainfall will end by midnight, with partial clearing.

Entering Wednesday, we will see partly sunny skies early in the morning, with overcast skies by the late morning. A new low pressure system coming out of the Ohio River Valley will bring another round of rainfall to the Ocean State. However, the models are slightly different in their forecast on the track of the low. The track could change how much rainfall we actually receive. At this time, I believe we will see showers by noon, with heavier rainfall by 2 p.m. Expect heavy rain during the evening commute, with highs in the upper 50’s. Rain will taper to showers by 1 a.m., with showers ending after 7 a.m. Now, we may see precipitation continue through Thursday morning, if the front is slower than forecast. Look for low temperatures Wednesday night in the upper 40’s.

We will see dry weather by Thursday afternoon, with some partial sunshine before sunset. Look for highs in the upper 50’s before the cold front passes. Then, temperatures will begin to fall into the upper 40’s before sunset. We return to partly cloudy skies Thursday night, and temperatures will fall into the upper 30’s. A secondary area of low pressure over Quebec will bring low-level moisture back into New England Friday afternoon. I will call for partly sunny skies, with the slight chance for a passing shower after 3 p.m. High temperatures will return back to normal for the end of November, which is the upper 40’s. We keep partly cloudy skies Friday night, with lows in the middle 30’s.

As we enter the weekend, cooler air coming down from Canada will take over much of the eastern U.S. High pressure moving into Tennessee Saturday night will influence our weather into next Sunday. We will see mostly sunny to sunny skies. High temperatures will be slightly below normal next weekend, with highs only reaching the lower 40’s. Overnight lows will be near freezing.

Jim Laurie is a local meteorologist who earned a B.S. in Meteorology at Lyndon State College in Lyndonville, VT. Jim has fifteen years of professional experience, with eight years in the field of marine meteorology.