Still Overcast and Wet Through Saturday; Sunshine Returns Monday; More Rain Tuesday

Weather Forecast & Discussion for Rhode Island on November 26, 2016

“The First Forty-Eight”

• Saturday: Drizzle and overcast until 10 a.m. Skies begin to clear after sunset. Highs in the upper 40’s, with winds NNW 5-8 mph. Partly to mostly cloudy Saturday night, lows in the lower to middle 30’s.
• Sunday: Mix of sun and clouds and breezy. Winds NW at 10-15 mph. Highs in the middle 40’s. Partly cloudy Sunday night, with lows near 30.

Forecast Discussion:

I hope everyone enjoyed their Thanksgiving, and have stayed safe during Black Friday. Skies stayed overcast for all the shoppers early Friday morning, although a sprinkle or shower was in the air. This gray, damp weather is due a weak area of low pressure hanging over western Quebec, Canada. This low may help create a few showers or even some moderate rainfall during the afternoon. We will see a dry slow of air move over Rhode Island by midnight, tapering our precipitation off to just drizzle. There may be pockets of patchy fog this evening, but will dissipate during the overnight. Look for low temperatures tonight in the upper 30’s.

Heading into Saturday morning, a new low pressure system is forecast to develop off the coast of New Jersey. However, it appears the computer models believe the center will stay far enough south and east from receiving any significant precipitation. So, we will keep drizzle and overcast skies through the morning. By the afternoon, any drizzle will end, with some partial clearing expected after sunset. Look for highs to reach the upper 40’s. By Saturday night, high pressure ridging will build in from the southwest, giving us partly to mostly cloudy skies. Low temperatures will fall into the middle 30’s. Low level moisture will remain on Sunday, so we will only have partial sunshine through the day. Winds will pick up from the northwest at 10-15 mph, with highs in the middle 40’s. Skies will finally become partly cloudy Sunday night, as more dry air overtakes our atmosphere. But, with some radiational cooling, temperatures will dip to near 30 degrees.

We return to our normal lives after this long holiday weekend with mostly sunny skies on Monday. High pressure will move out of the Southeast U.S., but will slowly move into the Atlantic. We will remain under its influence, with highs in the middle 40’s. We will keep clear skies into Monday night, but will see some mid-level clouds as we approach sunrise Tuesday. Look for low temperatures to fall into the lower 30’s. By Tuesday, a cold front will approach the east coast. We will see overcast skies during the morning commute, with some light to moderate rain arriving after 1 p.m. We may see up to an inch of rain, as the system lingers over the region into Wednesday morning. Look for high temperatures Tuesday in the upper 40’s, and lows in the lower 40’s.

As we enter Wednesday, the computer models are indicating another wave of low pressure over the Ohio River Valley will march its way towards Southern New England. This would bring another wave of precipitation by 1 p.m., with heavier rainfall arriving by the evening hours. With a warm front pushing through, high temperatures will rise into the middle 50’s, with lows in the middle 40’s. Rain will taper off to showers Thursday morning, as the cold front moves off to our east. By 1 p.m., all precipitation will end, but will remain overcast. Highs will reach the middle 50’s, with lows in the upper 30’s. We end the school and work week dry on Friday, but with some moisture still in our atmosphere. So, I will call for partly sunny skies. Look for highs in the upper 40’s.

Tropical Atlantic:

Finally, I just wanted to add that Hurricane Otto, which was near Costa Rica on Wednesday, did in fact move inland on Thanksgiving. Tropical Storm Otto is now centered on the Pacific side of Mexico, and will not move back towards the mainland within the next 5 days.

Jim Laurie is a local meteorologist who earned a B.S. in Meteorology at Lyndon State College in Lyndonville, VT. Jim has fifteen years of professional experience, with eight years in the field of marine meteorology.