RI Weather: Warm, Muggy Until Wednesday; Autumn Weather Returns Thursday

Weather Forecast Discussion for Rhode Island on October 19, 2016

A cold front will be approaching us from the Great Lakes by Wednesday morning. Otherwise, we will see more clouds than sunshine, with highs trying to reach 80 degrees. Our record for Wednesday is 81 degrees, set in 1945, so we may just break it. Skies will slowly clear through the evening, after the front passes, and a weak high pressure ridge moves overhead. It will be cooler Wednesday night, as low temperatures fall into the middle 50’s.

A developing area of low pressure near Illinois will bring back some mid-level clouds through Thursday. We will see some partial sunshine, with the risk for passing showers by the afternoon. High temperatures will return to normal conditions for mid-to-late October, reaching the lower 60’s. The slow moving low reaches southern Illinois Thursday night, but we will see precipitation go from showers to light to moderate rain. There might be a brief lull in the rain after 3 a.m. as the moisture actually moves back to the west of Rhode Island. But, eventually, the precipitation will fill back over the state by the late afternoon. Lows Thursday night will reach the middle 50’s.

The amount of precipitation we receive on Friday greatly depends on the movement of a tropical disturbance being watched at the moment. The area of thunderstorms are about 200 miles northeast of Turks and Caicos. It has a 50% chance of becoming a tropical system in the next 48 hours, and 80% chance within 5 days. It will not hit Rhode Island, but the energy and moisture from this system may be absorbed by the Pennsylvania low. This would mean moderate rainfall by noon on Friday. High temperatures Friday will reach the middle 60’s. Rain would taper to showers by 8 a.m., as most of the moisture moves north and east. Any precipitation would end by midnight, with skies slowly clearing into Saturday morning. It will become breezy with lows falling into the lower 50’s.

Saturday will be windy, as there will be a tight pressure gradient between the departing low and high pressure ridging trying to build in over our area. It will be partly to mostly sunny, with highs reaching the lower 60’s. Skies will become partly cloudy, with winds diminishing, and lows falling into the lower 40’s. We will remain sunny Sunday and Monday, thanks to high pressure over the Southeast U.S. Temperatures will be in the upper 50’s, with lows in the lower 40’s. High pressure from Canada will take over our weather by next Tuesday, keeping us under mostly sunny skies. With some cooler air, high temperatures may only reach the middle 50’s.

Jim Laurie is a local meteorologist who earned a B.S. in Meteorology at Lyndon State College in Lyndonville, VT. Jim has fifteen years of professional experience, with eight years in the field of marine meteorology.