Warm Weather Ends; Showers Arrive Saturday Night; Thanksgiving Weather Preview

Weather Forecast Discussion for Rhode Island on November 19, 2016

I have to admit, we have had some incredible weather for the middle of November. Today is no exception, with abundant sunshine and temperatures in the lower 60’s. In fact, temperatures are about 10 degrees above normal for this time of the year. However, temperatures will fall to below normal conditions early next week, and some parts of Rhode Island may see a flurry or two before Thanksgiving.

At the moment, high pressure over the Southeast U.S. is giving us this great weather. But, a storm system over the Atlantic has brought ocean effect clouds over the Cape and Islands for most of the day. We will keep clear skies for tonight, as lows fall into the upper 30’s. We will see a few clouds from that storm system move west and over Rhode Island through Saturday afternoon. So, we will start with sunny skies, with increasing clouds through the mid and late afternoon. We will remain mild, as temperatures reach the upper 50’s. A storm system coming from the west will bring a cold front over the state by about 10 p.m. Saturday evening. We will see scattered showers through the overnight, with lows in the lower 40’s.

The low’s center will hang over western Quebec, Canada for most of Sunday. It will also merge with the low over the Atlantic. With colder air coming in behind the front, we will also see strong wind gusts of 40 mph during the day. Scattered showers during Sunday morning will become more isolated into the afternoon, as much of the moisture moves east. Any isolated showers remain over us Sunday night, and with temperatures falling into the lower 30’s, northwest Rhode Island may see some flurries mixing with the raindrops. However, no snow accumulation is expected, although it may cover the grassy areas. The low will remain stationary through Monday, so we will keep breezy conditions and overcast skies. A sprinkle or two is still possible, as there is enough low level moisture still over Southern New England. Temperatures will struggle to reach the lower to middle 40’s, thanks to a dome of colder air moving over New England. We will keep overcast skies into part of Monday night, before high pressure ridging brings drier air in after midnight. Temperatures will fall below freezing as we awaken Tuesday morning.

Winds will begin to diminish on Tuesday, as the low moves further northeast and away from New England. We will return to mostly sunny skies by the afternoon, but it will remain chilly, with highs only reaching the middle 40’s. High pressure moves south of Rhode Island Wednesday morning, meaning mostly sunny skies if you are catching a morning flight, or heading on the highway to reach your destination for Thanksgiving. Clouds will be increasing by the mid-afternoon, as we await a new low pressure system moving east from the western Great Lakes. Look for highs in the upper 40’s. Rain showers will arrive before midnight Wednesday night, and will remain as rain showers, as low temperatures only fall into the upper 30’s. We will keep overcast skies and showers throughout Thanksgiving Day, as a second low forms off the coast of Long Island. But, we will return to normal temperatures, with highs in the lower 50’s. This low may stay near the Gulf of Maine into Friday, making it wet for those Black Friday shoppers, especially for those early bird specials. The low may move out enough for some partial sunshine by the afternoon. Look for low temperatures Thursday night to be in the lower 40’s, and highs next Friday in the lower 50’s.

Jim Laurie is a local meteorologist who earned a B.S. in Meteorology at Lyndon State College in Lyndonville, VT. Jim has fifteen years of professional experience, with eight years in the field of marine meteorology.