Rhode Island Weekend Weather Forecast: It Looks Great

Weather Forecast Discussion for Rhode Island on October 7, 2016

Now that we know Hurricane Matthew will not be coming to Southern New England, it drastically changes how we can look at the holiday weekend. Many outdoor events are occurring across Rhode Island, so what can we expect from our weather?

Thursday afternoon there was a strong high pressure system centered right over Southern New England. This gave us light winds Thursday, along with bright sunshine. High temperatures reached 70 degrees in the capital city of Providence. Any patchy fog developing before sunrise will burn off by 7 a.m. Then, we will see mostly sunny skies with above-normal temperatures, with highs in the lower 70’s. Skies will remain clear Friday night, with lows near 50 degrees.

By sunrise Saturday morning, we will see increasing clouds arriving from the west. The cloud cover will not be from Hurricane Matthew, but a cold front approaching out of the Mid-Atlantic. There will be an increasing risk for scattered showers by around 2 p.m., with more widespread showers after sunset. Any partial sunshine will help high temperatures reach the upper 60’s. Showers will continue through the night, as the front passes through Rhode Island by about 4 a.m. Low temperatures are expected to be in the middle 50’s.

Skies will remain cloudy on Sunday morning, and there may still be a stray shower in the area. But, any precipitation will end by 9 a.m. with clearing skies. Skies will become mostly sunny by sunset. With winds now coming from the north, we will see cooler high temperatures, with the mercury only reaching the middle 60’s. High pressure coming down from central Canada will bring back clear skies Sunday night, with lows in the middle 40’s. From there, the high will dominate our weather pattern right into Wednesday. High temperatures will be near 60 Columbus Day, and into the middle to middle 60’s Tuesday and Wednesday. Lows will be in the upper 40’s Monday night, and near 50 degrees Tuesday night. We will reach the upper 60’s on Thursday, with lows in the lower 50’s Wednesday and Thursday night.

Finally, after looking at computer models that are made for marine forecasts, it appears our seas and surf will not become rough. Simply put, because Matthew stays so far south, the wave energy it will create will decay by the time it reaches the Tri-State area. So, look for any choppy seas to come Saturday night, due to the cold front.

Tropical Update: At this time, the entire Southeast U.S. coastline are bracing themselves for Hurricane Matthew. With winds around the center still at 140 mph, Matthew may cause catastrophic damage, especially along the eastern Florida coast. The National Weather Service even used strong language in their weather statement from their local office in Melbourne, FL saying some locations may be “inhabitable for weeks or months.” Also, President Obama has already declared a state of emergency for Florida.

Almost 1.5 million people were asked by Governor Rick Scott to evacuate the coastline, with a total of 2 million in 3 states to leave coastal areas and move further inland. This may be the first hurricane since Hurricane Wilma in October 2005 to make landfall on the Sunshine State. The current forecast track has Matthew almost directly following the Florida coastline through Friday. It is offshore of the Georgia-South Carolina border by 8 a.m. Saturday. Matthew then heads off to the east-northeast, and away from the coastline, by Saturday afternoon. However, with a strong high pressure system over the Mid-Atlantic, Matthew will not be able to move towards another area of lower pressure. This will also stop Hurricane Nicole from moving, actually staying quasi-stationary through the weekend.

As of 2 p.m. Thursday, Matthew was centered about 125 miles east-southeast of West Palm Beach, FL. Again, maximum sustained winds are at 140 mph, and is moving northwest at 14 mph. After Monday, the forecast models all agree that Matthew will simply remain in a “loop de loop” as it weakens, but will try to come back around toward eastern Florida within 7 days.

Jim Laurie is a local meteorologist who earned a B.S. in Meteorology at Lyndon State College in Lyndonville, VT. Jim has fifteen years of professional experience, with eight years in the field of marine meteorology.