RI Winter 2018-19 Forecast: Long-Range Predictions

Next weekend will already be September, and winter will be here sooner than you think. A couple popular long-range forecasts have been released recently, so let's take a look at what the soothsayers of the skies have in store for New England.

Of course, predicting tomorrow's weather can be risky business, never mind four months from now. We'll start with something a bit more concrete: El Niño. There is a 70 percent chance of this being an El Niño year, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Even though the primarily impacts the Pacific Ocean, it typically means warmer and wetter winters for New England.

So we start with the Old Farmers Almanac, released this week. The "warm, wet" designation for much of the eastern part of the United State jives with the El Niño prediction. That isn't to say to expect temperatures in the 50s, but on average things could be a few ticks higher than usual.

Old Farmers Almanac, first published in 1792, wrote that winter in New England, "will be milder than normal, on average, with above-normal precipitation and near-normal snowfall. The coldest periods will occur from late December into mid-January and late January into early February and in mid to late February. The snowiest periods will be in early January, early to mid-February, mid-March, and early April. April and May will be rainier than normal, with below-normal temperatures.

The NOAA's forecast calls for more average precipitation, but finds common ground with the Old Farmers Almanac in its temperature predictions.

Last year's long-range forecasts called for a colder-than-normal season and an above-average snow season. The Farmers Almanac' forecast last year expected "snowier-than-normal" conditions.

Photo by Mike Carraggi, Patch