Experts: S.C. Votes Up for Grabs After Iowa

With South Carolina voters already proving to be an uncommitted bunch, the results in Iowa have put even more Republicans in play in the important Jan. 21 challenge. 

Political observers in the Palmetto State say this could be an opening for the newest top-tier candidate, Rick Santorum. 

The former U.S. senator from Pennsylvania finished a surprising second in the Iowa Caucus on Tuesday, just eight votes behind former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney.

After finishing a distant sixth, that she was leaving the race. Landing at fifth in Iowa, Texas Gov. Rick Perry has vowed to stay in through South Carolina, .

Based on the results of Clemson University's Palmetto Poll in mid-December, that puts at lest a quarter of likely primary voters into play, including 16 percent who were undecided. Well over half of those polled said they "might change" their pick.

Abandoned Bachmann supporters and disaffected Perry voters offer just the opening Santorum needs, said Robert Oldendick, director of USC’s Institute for Public Service and Policy Research. 

"Because of their positions on social issues, particularly in contrast to Mitt Romney," he said. "And because of the momentum that Santorum has found coming out of Iowa."

Romney's 22 percent appears to be a true ceiling, Oldendick said. And, while Gingrich was leading in S.C. Primary polls in December, he has faced a barrage of attacks from Romney and others that drove his numbers south in the final weeks in Iowa.

Meanwhile, Santorum has largely avoided flak."This is shaping up to be the first head-to-head contest between Santorum and Perry," Oldendick said.

But the orderly exodus from flailing campaigns isn't assured. In a NBC News/Marist Poll in early December, likely S.C. Primary voters were asked about their second choice.

Among Bachmann supporters who now face finding that second choice, it was a free-for-all: 24 percent said they would support Perry, 24 percent went with Romney, while 21 percent said Gingrich. Six percent said they would support Santorum.

When Perry supporters were asked for a No. 2, 46 percent said they would support Romney, while 27 percent went with Gingrich. Santorum was at 4 percent.

Those answers likely reflect the "electability" argument, said Jeri Cabot, an adjunct political science professor at the College of Charleston. Santorum's success this week may have addressed that concern.

"We could see the same thing happen here that happened in Iowa," she said.

The Clemson poll was taken prior to Santorum's last-minute climb among caucus voters, but Santorum has visisted the state more times than any other candidate.

"It's not like he hasn't campaigned here at all," said Oldendick. "We'll have to see if he can take the opportunity from Iowa and turn it into voters."