Oddsmaker Says Austin 3rd Likely To Get Amazon HQ, Dallas Trails

AUSTIN, TEXAS — The oddsmaker Bovada doesn't think Austin will ultimately land an envisioned second headquarters for Amazon 20 finalist cities are scrambling to land. Instead, Northern Virginia is the clear favorite to lure the massive economic development plum.

In Texas, where Austin and Dallas are in the running, them's fightin' words. Both cities have come out on top in other reckoning as to who might land the coveted project dubbed Amazon H2, which would spur some 50,000 jobs and billions in economic impact to the winning municipality.

Not so fast, says online sports parlor Bovada. which has released its list of odds for the 20 finalists to get Amazon's second headquarters. They put Northern Virginia at the top of the list with odds of +240 and Washington, D.C. with +350 odds.

Then comes Austin at +400 trailed by Boston at +450, according to OddsShark. The Big D (that's Dallas for your carpetbaggers) doesn't figure that big on the list, way down at +5000 on the list in the 15th position.

Those odds are a stark contrast to calculations by CNBC. Just last week, the business news media outlet positioned Austin and DallasAustin and Dallas as neck and neck ahead of the pack in ultimately landing the massive, $5 billion plant even while giving props to Atlanta, Boston, Denver, Miami, Nashville and Northern Virginia as particularly strong contenders.

Others have posited Austin as arguably the strongest strong contender alongside Dallas. The capital city's recent landing of the new Army Futures Command seen as not only a good omen but Amazon HQ2 bellwether. So where's the love, Bovada?

Related stories:

Austin, Dallas Seen As Top Contenders For Amazon HQ2

If Austin Lands Amazon H2: What Would It Be Like To Work There?

Austin Rents Would Rise If City Gets Amazon's Second Headquarters Site

Austin Enters The Race, Submitting Its Proposal For Amazon HQ Project

It's Official: Austin Lands New U.S. Army Futures Command

There is no love, just the alchemy-like reckoning that goes into odds making. Bovada ups the probability ante in noting the D.C. area owns three spots on the short list, with New York the only other metro area on the list with more than one (New York and Newark, N.J.).

Then there's the matter of an intriguing Amazon job listing in the D.C. metropolitan area posted in late July that's stirred up talk about the region's chances of landing the plant. The economic development manager position involves working on economic incentives with state and local government, as well as chambers of commerce and "other key public/private stakeholder groups," the ad reads in part.

It also involves "supporting the site selection process." The position does not mention working with the federal government. Candidates must have eight or more years of economic incentive or business development experience, the ad delineates.

While that may be gazing too deeply into the tea leaves (or the help wanted ads in this case), it certainly does thicken the plot.

Austin and Dallas were among 238 cities and regions that originally applied for the project before the candidates' list was whittled down to 20 in January. Amazon officials are now poised to work with each of the candidates for a deeper dive into their individual proposals, request additional information and evaluate the feasibility of a future partnership that can accommodate the company's hiring plans, Amazon officials have said.

That decision is expected to made this year, Amazon officials added. That would make a nice early holiday present for the winning city, yet Bovada has come along to put metaphorical coal into Austin's figurative stocking with their betting odds.

"What do they know," is the collective muttering of local civic boosters learning of these odds. Besides, they're described on the Internet as "...a trusted online gambling site offering sports betting, poker, casino games and betting on horse racing." What they they know from economic development projects?

It's still anyone's game, right?

Then there's the matter of Bovada credibility: A mere dozen days before releasing their Amazon H2 odds list on Aug. 24, New Jersey regulators announced efforts to crack down on illegal gambling sites operating offshore — singling out Bovada as their regulatory Moby Dick of sorts. Not that there's anything wrong with that, but just saying.

But we Texans are a polite lot known for our unflagging hospitality and not given to mud slingin' or cursin' at detractors. Still, many in these here parts likely reckon Bovada should maybe stick to the ponies.

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