Texas Could See More Tornadoes In 2019: AccuWeather

AUSTIN, TEXAS — Much of the nation woke to horrific accounts of tornadoes ripping through Alabama and Georgia on Sunday evening, claiming 23 lives along their deadly path. Those in Texas should brace for tornadoes this season as well, with a prominent forecasting service predicting a higher frequency of severe storms this year.

The spring tornado season has just begun, making its lethal entry in Alabama and Georgia overnight leaving the high death toll amid a landscape of downed cell towers and trees downed, splintered debris, destroyed buildings and obliterated mobile homes. The confirmed deaths all occurred in Lee County in the eastern part of Alabama — victims that included both adults and children, according to the sheriff there.

At least a dozen of people died in a single area about five miles south of Opelika as a dozen tornadoes touched down across Alabama and Georgia, CNN reported.

Related story: Tornadoes Rip Through Alabama, Georgia; 14 Deaths Reported

Texas was spared for now. But AccuWeather, is predicting a heightened frequency of severe storm risks along Tornado Alley, which encompasses parts of Texas along with neighboring Oklahoma, Kansas and Nebraska. The northern part of the state on the southern end of Tornado Alley is particularly vulnerable, but tornadoes can occur anywhere in Texas — the state with the highest number of tornadoes anywhere in the U.S.

“We believe that the more traditional severe weather region of the central and southern Plains will have a higher potential for tornadoes and severe weather more frequently than they have experienced on average the past three years,” AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok said.

The forecast was shared with AccuWeather’s subscription clients last week before it was made available to the public free of charge as a public service, AccuWeather officials said.

The trigger for possible tornadoes in Texas will be the usual suspect, coming in the form of the Guff of Mexico: “We believe warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures over the Gulf of Mexico will lead to increased moisture transport from the Gulf over the region and ultimately a higher frequency of severe weather in these areas,” Pastelok said.

Other forecasters aren't going out on the AccuWeather limb in predicting a robust tornado season in Texas. The National Weather Service is averse to making long-range predictions on tornadoes, with the nearest approximation at such prognostication coming via its Climate Prediction Center that calls for above-normal precipitation in its seasonal outlook for March, April and May.

Regardless, Texans have reason to be concerned. According to Texas Tornado Facts, the Lone Star State has the highest average annual number of tornadoes in the U.S., with an average of 132 tornadoes touching down each year. "The annual total varies considerably, and certain areas are struck more often than others," the website reads. "Tornadoes occur with greatest frequency in the Red River Valley of North Texas."

Tornado Alley actually starts in Central Texas before winding its way north through Oklahoma, central Kansas and Nebraska and then eastern portions of South Dakota. Sometimes, the treacherous alley dog-legs east through Iowa, Missouri, Illinois and Indiana to western Ohio.

The Texas Department of Public Safety offers tips on seeking shelter from tornadoes, which officials note "...can occur at any time of year, including winter, but are most frequent from mid-March through May."

To prepare for these violent storms, Texas DPS outlines several precautions that should be taken:

• Seek shelter in an interior room on the lowest floor of your home, such as a bathroom, closet or room without windows. Cover yourself with a mattress or cushions.
• In an office building, go to an interior room or hallway on the lowest floor.
• If you are in a mobile home, get out and take shelter in a nearby building. If there are none, lie flat in a ditch or ravine.
• Never stay inside a car. Get out and lie flat in a ditch or a ravine. If a building is nearby, take shelter inside. Do not try to outrun a tornado in your car.
• At school, follow plans and go to a designated shelter area, usually interior hallways on the lowest floor. Avoid auditoriums, gyms and areas with wide, free-span roofs.
• In a shopping center, move towards the interior away from exterior glass walls.
• If you are in open country, take cover in a low spot away from trees.
• Learn the difference between a Tornado Watch and a Tornado Warning. A Tornado Watch means watch the sky. A Tornado Warning means a tornado is on the ground and you must seek shelter immediately.

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