San Antonio: Projections Show Local Peak Of COVID-19 Between Late-April Through Mid-May

Press release from the City of San Antonio:

April 15, 2020

Several independent models show current social distancing measures saving thousands of lives

CURRENT AS OF 9:00 P.M. SAN ANTONIO (April 15, 2020) — The City of San Antonio worked with several researchers and organizations to provide predictive models that outline the local impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The models utilize different assumptions and predict different peaks ranging from late April through late July, though most point to May. The models adapt to reflect current conditions.

“The public should think of these models like they would a hurricane tracking model. They provide a range of data estimates for officials to consider along with a host of other information to make informed decisions on how to continue slowing the spread of COVID-19. The models clearly show the effectiveness of social distancing measures,” said Assistant City Manager Dr. Colleen Bridger. “Making it through the peak of this pandemic doesn’t mean it’s over. San Antonio will continue dealing with COVID-19 for months after the peak and we should continue to practice social distancing and good hygiene.”

UTSA COVID-19 Transmission Scenarios Report
Dr. Juan B. Gutierrez, Chair of the University of Texas at San Antonio’s Mathematics Department released models that show the potential impacts of COVID-19 in the following scenarios:

• If no social distancing measures had been in place,
• If the Stay Home Work Safe Orders are lifted completely,
• If high levels of social distancing continue and
• If the Stay Home Work Safe Orders are lifted but medium levels of social distancing continue.

The study predicts 3,600 cases of COVID-19 through July, with a projected peak by early May, if the City’s current social distancing measures remain in place. The model also notes that the City’s social distancing measures saved the community from a catastrophic event. Had no social distancing measures been put in place, the model predicts that there would have been more than 900,000 cases, with an overwhelmed local hospital system. The study also states:

“An early response prevented an explosion in the number of cases. Had the Mayor and County Judge not acted early, the crisis would have been significantly larger. The city lockdown has slowed down the progression of the disease. It allowed the health system to prepare for what is likely to be an inevitable surge.”

Nu.AI Lab at UTSA COVID-19 Projections
A different study was produced by the Nu.AI Lab at UTSA by researchers Dr. Dhirresha Kudithipudi, Nicholas Soures, Zachariah Carmichael; Anurag Daram, Dr. Lloyd Potter, David Chambers of SwRI; and Dr. Dimpy Shah, Dr. Kal Clark of UT Health San Antonio. A different study was produced by the Nu.AI Lab at UTSA by researchers Dr. Dhirresha Kudithipudi and team. The study predicts nearly 30,000 cases of COVID-19 in San Antonio with a projected peak in mid-May. The study assumes that the Stay Home Work Safe order remains in effect to include closures of schools, bars and restaurants. The study states:

“It is critical for the Bexar County to reinforce social distancing measures for the next two months to reduce the impact on the public, hospitals and healthcare team.”

Oliver Wyman COVID-19 Pandemic Navigator
The Oliver Wyman COVID-19 pandemic navigator provides national analysis of the pandemic. The study predicts a peak of 1,700 cases through May, with a peak in late April. The study incorporates virus suppression measures, such as social distancing.

Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington
This study includes overall projections for the state of Texas with assumptions that the state of Texas implements full social distancing measures through May of 2020. As of the study’s publication, Texas has implemented a stay at home order and closed educational facilities. Cities have implemented Stay Home Work Safe orders. The study predicts a peak of COVID-19 cases in late April. It does not predict a total number of cases.

The models are available at www.sanantonio.gov/COVID19 and will be updated as the COVID-19 crisis evolves locally.

FOUR WAYS TO SIGN UP FOR COVID-19 ALERTS

1. Download the Ready South Texas app, available in the iTunes and Google Play stores
2. Text COSAGOV to 55000 to receive SMS text message updates
3. Follow @COSAGOV on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram
4. Bookmark www.SanAntonio.gov

Public service announcements on social distancing, prevention and testing are available here.

This press release was produced by the City of San Antonio. The views expressed here are the author’s own.