At least 10 of the 50 U.S. states have redrawn or are considering redrawing their Congressional boundaries before the November midterm elections. In some states, Republicans benefit, while in other states, Democrats will have the edge. But clearly, it is already affecting votes in states where primary elections are underway. Let’s “brunch” on that and more this week.
“Ken Paxton – ‘The Texas Tornado’” – In the end, it wasn’t even close. Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) Texas, crushed four-term Sen. John Cornyn (R) Texas. After a last-minute endorsement for Paxton from President Donald Trump, Paxton took 63 percent of the vote, to 37 percent for Cornyn. In political parlance, that is a landslide. Cornyn was contrite in defeat, but will back Paxton in November, saying, “Tonight we’ve come up short. I’ve always supported the Republican ticket, and I intend to do so again.” That is crucial, as Paxton will likely face a heavily funded challenge from Rep. James Talarico (D-TX). Talarico lobbed the first grenade, saying, “Ken Paxton is the most corrupt politician in America. He embodies the broken system we’re running against.” Paxton has faced allegations ranging from securities fraud to adultery. Conservatives have targeted Talarico for his claims that there are “six genders.” Here we go!
“Trump’s Clout Revisited” – Last week, I opined about Trump’s success in taking down Sen. Bill Cassidy (R) Louisiana, and Rep. Thomas Massie (R) Kentucky, by endorsing and financially backing their primary opponents. So, this week, the same formula worked for Ken Paxton, who took down Sen. Cornyn. Paxton said, “When everyone in Washington told him to abandon me and abandon the people of Texas, he didn’t listen.” Paxton added, “President Trump is the leader of our party, and his endorsement is the most powerful force in politics.” Paxton, who also took on and defeated the Bush Dynasty by defeating George P. Bush for attorney general, is not wrong. This is a seismic shift in the GOP. My dear friend and colleague Jamie Dupree from www.Substack.com headlined his article as the “Texas Chainsaw Massacre!” Spot on!
“Democrats Duel and Lose One Seat” – Because of congressional redistricting done by Texas Republicans, two incumbent Democrats wound up in the same new district in Houston. Rep. Christian Menefee (D) Texas defeated Rep. Al Green (D) Texas. Menefee is a freshman, while Green has served nearly 22 years in the House. Green was a fierce critic of President Trump, filing four articles of impeachment against him. Green was also ejected for heckling Trump at two State of the Union addresses. Rep. Menefee praised Rep. Green by saying, “He stood in the well of the United States House of Representatives and called President Trump out to his face, even when he stood alone. That is a legacy that will outlast any election.” Trump responded, calling Green, “one of the most mentally deficient Congressmen in the history of our Country.” Trump added, “But I will not miss that lunatic screaming and violently waving his cane at me during my next State of the Union Speech.”
“Redistricting Wars: Big Loss in South Carolina” – Republican state senators in South Carolina made the bold move of challenging President Trump. Trump has asked them to draw a new Congressional district map that could remove the only Democrat from the state’s Congressional delegation, Rep. Jim Clyburn (D), South Carolina. The rejection came the same day early voting began in the South Carolina primary. State Sen. Richard Cash (R) South Carolina, was one of those rebuffing Trump, saying, “South Carolina citizens are going to the polls today. And neither my conscience nor common sense is going to let me stop an election that is already underway.” It will be fascinating to see how Mr. Trump responds. The Indiana state senate made a similar refusal, so Trump endorsed and ran a slate of candidates against seven incumbent Republicans who opposed redistricting, and defeated five of them.
“More Redistricting: Alabama May Lose Black Majority Seat” – A panel of three federal judges in Alabama has ruled against a new Congressional map drawn by Republicans, which would allow the GOP to gain at least one seat in the U.S. House. That seat is currently occupied by Rep. Shomari Figures (D) Alabama, who is Black. In their decision the judges wrote, “Ultimately, we cannot see our way clear to requiring Alabamians to cast their votes in the 2026 elections under a districting plan tainted by intentional race-based discrimination.” The state will appeal the ruling to the U.S. Supreme Court. Attorney General Steve Marshall (R) Alabama, said, “Know this — in my mind, it is not a matter of whether we win this case, only when.” And, late Friday, Louisiana’s legislature also drew a new map that ostensibly eliminates one Democrat seat.
“Florida Democrats Infighting” – This past week, a state judge in Florida upheld the state’s newly redrawn Congressional map. The map could give Republicans a net gain of four seats in the U.S. House. Surely, the judge’s order will be appealed by Democrats, but meanwhile, some of the races are in chaos. Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D) Florida was cut out of her current district, so she is choosing to run in the predominantly Black district 20, which has had an African-American member of Congress for the past 34 years. The primary may feature as many as five Black candidates. Schultz, who is White, said, “It’s not really surprising that that criticism is coming from folks who are already running for the job.” But political activist Elijah Manley said Schultz was “tearing the community apart.” The primary is August 18, but the candidate filing deadline is June 12.
“California Dreamin’” – The primary election in California is Tuesday, when voters narrow down the choices for the governor, to succeed Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) California. Unlike most states, the top two vote-getters in California will advance to November, even if they are from the same party. Right now, former Rep. Xavier Becerra (D) California is edging businessman Steve Hilton (R), 23 to 20 percent, in the Public Policy Institute of California Poll. Six other candidates are polling in the race, with 9 percent of voters still undecided. Even if a Republican makes the November election, this will be an uphill fight in a very blue state.
“Whitmer for President, Not” – Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) Michigan, was one of about eight prominent Democrats considering a bid for the White House in 2028. Now she won’t. She told WJBK in Detroit, “There will be a robust group of people running for president. I will not be one of them in 2028. I can tell you that.” Many national polls had her in the single digits. But I think whoever is the Democrats’ nominee in 2028 has to think about her as the vice-presidential running mate. First of all, she won Michigan by big margins in 2018 and 2022. Donald Trump carried Michigan on both of his successful runs for the White House in 2016 and 2024. Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania are known as the “Blue Wall,” which is critical to winning the presidency. Trump carried all three in his wins, while former President Joe Biden won all three in 2020. Whitmer might pair well with Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) California if he is the nominee.
“Iran War Update” – Negotiators from the U.S. and Iran say they have reached a tentative deal to extend the ceasefire by another 60 days, and will resume discussions about the future of Iran’s nuclear program. The agreement was leaked to the Associated Press, but no official in Iran or the U.S. has confirmed it. U.S. financial markets spiked on the news, and oil has dropped to an average of $87 per barrel. On the other hand, inflation surged 3.8 percent in April, to its highest level in three years. How the economy swings up and down if the war is still not settled could spell bad news for Republicans in November. Trump may have a stranglehold on members of his own party now, but independents may swing many races and give Democrats control of Congress. This bears continuous monitoring.
“The $250 Bill” – Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirms his agency is working on a design for the commemorative $250 bill, to celebrate the country’s 250th birthday in July. If all goes as planned, Presidents Trump’s picture will be on the bills. Rep. Joe Wilson (R) South Carolina introduced the legislation to make this happen. Speaking of things named after Trump, a federal judge ruled Friday that Trump’s renaming of the Kennedy Center for the Arts for himself was illegal and that Congress should have been consulted. An appeal is coming.
Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is a South Florida-based political writer and analyst who has covered news and politics nationwide for the past 49 years. He is a multiple award winner, including two prestigious Edward R. Murrow Awards. Most recently, he served as the Chief Political Reporter for the seven Nexstar Media TV stations, covering West Virginia and its five neighboring states, as well as the Washington, DC media market. Curtis is a former Congressional Fellow who worked in the U.S. House and U.S. Senate. Over the years, he has been a contributing writer and analyst at Patch.com and other outlets, including GoLocalProv.com. His commentary and analysis can be heard every Friday at 1:45 p.m. ET on the 22-station West Virginia Metro News Radio Network. www.WVMetroNews.com.
© 2026 Mark Curtis Media
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