The Battle for War and Elections -- “The Sunday Political Brunch” -- July 12, 2026

The math is simple for Democrats. They must flip four U.S. Senate seats held by Republicans, and they must protect a very vulnerable Democrat incumbent. That would give them a 51 to 49 majority and control of the U.S. Senate. Even if they tie at 50-50, Republicans still control the body with the tie-breaking vote of Vice President JD Vance. All this falls within the backdrop of new U.S. military strikes against Iran, which could have an impact on U.S. elections. Let’s “brunch” on this and other headlines this week.

“Iran Update” – In the words of President Donald Trump, the fragile ceasefire is done. Trump said, “For me, I think it is over.” The U.S. military launched strikes on more Iranian sites on Tuesday through Friday. This came after Iran fired on three private foreign oil tankers and also launched attacks on U.S. military locations in the Persian Gulf region. Trump did say negotiators can keep trying to achieve peace, saying, “They can talk, but I think they’re wasting their time.” Iranian Parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf said on X, “The era of bullying and extortion is over.” He added, “It leads nowhere. We don’t fold.” The renewed fighting sent U.S. financial markets into a tailspin, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping nearly 600 points on Wednesday, and oil prices rose by 5% to $70 per barrel. Trump threatened to capture Iran’s Kharg Island, where 90 percent of its crude oil is processed. The volatile situation is fluid.

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“The Maine Problem” – It’s a “must-have” seat if Democrats wish to regain control of the U.S. Senate. Maine’s Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate, Graham Platner, has dropped out of the race amid sexual assault allegations from a former girlfriend. “Any accusation of non-consensual behavior is categorically false,” Platner said in his video. His accuser, Jenny Racicot, told CNN, "I think there are a lot of men in this world relying on the silence of women to be where they are. And I don't want to contribute to that.” Racicot said Platner forced himself upon her without consent, and she told him to stop. She added, "I also want to just get my life back." Several Maine Democrats are expressing interest in being the nominee, and the party must decide on a candidate by July 27th. As I predicted here weeks ago, Sen. Susan Collins (R) Maine will be reelected in the chaos. Before the scandal erupted, a Fox News Poll among people “extremely” motivated to vote, Platner was leading Sen. Susan Collins (R) Maine, 53 to 44 percent. This is a disaster for Maine and national Democrats, from which I don’t think they can recover. Bet on Collins.

“Texas Two-Step” – This could have been a slam-dunk reelection for Sen. John Cornyn (R) Texas, but he crossed President Trump too many times. Trump instead endorsed Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) Texas, and he beat Sen. Cornyn in the primary runoff. Rep. James Talarico (D) Texas, is Paxton’s November opponent, and at this point, the polls are dead even. The latest New York Times-Siena College Poll has the two men tied at 47 percent apiece. This will likely be the most expensive Senate race in the nation this year, with each side already launching nasty barbs at the other. Texas may be solidly red and has produced three terms of Bush White Houses, but this Senate seat is very much up for grabs. Paxton, who defeated George P. Bush for attorney general, is no friend of the Bush family, so don’t look for any endorsements.

“Ohio Take 2” – While Ohio has gone from a purple to a more red state in recent election cycles, Democrats still have significant clout here. Former three-term Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) Ohio, is back in the race, trying to defeat Sen. Jon Husted (R) Ohio, the sitting Lt. Governor who was appointed to the vacancy when Sen. JD Vance became Vice President Vance. The latest composite poll from www.RealClearPolling.com has the two men tied with 48 percent apiece. Ohio has large and expensive media markets, so it will be interesting to see how much out-of-state money pours in. I also think President Trump is leaning towards endorsing Vice President JD Vance to succeed him in 2028, over Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) Florida. So, how Trump deals with Ohio in 2026 could be critical.

“North Carolina in My Mind” – Democrats have long believed their best shot for a pickup of a Republican Senate seat was in North Carolina, where Sen. Tom Tillis chose not to seek reelection. The website www.270toWin.com published a composite of ten recent polls. Former two-term Gov. Roy Cooper (D) North Carolina has an average of 49 percent, while former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley is at 38 percent. The rest are split among third-party candidates and undecided voters. This race promises to be feisty and expensive.

“Georgia on My Mind” – Going into the 2026 midterm election cycle, Republicans clearly targeted Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) Georgia, as the most vulnerable Democrat up for reelection. After all, in 2020, he was elected with a slim margin of just 1.8 percent of the vote. Ossoff is now facing Rep. Mike Collins (R) Georgia, who was endorsed by President Trump. But a recent Fox News Poll has Ossoff leading Collins, 56 to 43 percent. Turnout could be higher than normal, since there is a competitive race for the Governor of Georgia, and the Democrat leads the polls in that race, too.

“Iowa Senate” – Another place where Democrats are looking to pick up a seat is Iowa, home of the “first in the nation presidential caucuses.” So, what happens here in 2026 could foreshadow 2028. Sen. Joni Ernst (R) Iowa chose not to seek a third term in 2026. A composite of the most recent polls shows a 47-47 tie between Rep. Ashley Hinson (R) Iowa and State Rep. Josh Turek (D) Iowa. This is a purple battleground state, so this race could be pivotal.

“More Trump Court Losses” – A federal judge in Manhattan has ordered that E. Jean Carroll be paid $5.8 million by President Trump. Carroll accused Trump of sexually assaulting her and then defaming her with slander after this verdict, and won a huge civil judgment. Trump asked the U.S. Supreme Court to hear the appeal, but it declined. He may try again. Also, this past week, the U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals for Washington, DC, rejected a move to reinstate Donald J. Trump’s name on the Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts, along with the name of President John F. Kennedy. Team Trump failed to persuade the appellate court that Trump would be "irreparably injured" without the Trump branding on the building. Lower courts and the opposition argued that Congress, through its fiscal oversight of the federal budget, should have been consulted. This is not over, but I predict an eventual Trump loss due to a lack of Constitutionally mandated Congressional oversight.

“Mitch McConnell Illness” – Senator Mitch McConnell (R) Kentucky was rushed to a Washington; DC area hospital on June 14 after 911 was called for a possible heart attack call at his residence. His office has provided little information, only issuing a statement that said, "Senator McConnell appreciates the outpouring of support he's receiving while he continues his recovery in the hospital. The Senator continues to improve, and is working closely with his staff on Kentucky and Senate matters while the Senate is out of session." Washington, DC is the world’s biggest rumor mill. In the absence of facts, rumors “suck all the oxygen out of the room.” Former Rep. Majorie Taylor Greene (R) Georgia says she has solid information that McConnell is “nearly dead.” And President Trump’s close confidant Laura Loomer says McConnell is “brain dead and hooked up to machines,” and that the former Senate Majority Leader is a “vegetable.” McConnell, who is 84, has had some serious falls and mental blackouts in the past decade.

Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is a South Florida-based political writer and analyst who has covered news and politics nationwide for the past 49 years. He is a multiple award winner, including two prestigious Edward R. Murrow Awards. Most recently, he served as the Chief Political Reporter for the seven Nexstar Media TV stations, covering the Washington DC, media market, West Virginia, and its five neighboring states. Curtis is a former Congressional Fellow who worked in the U.S. House and U.S. Senate. Over the years, he has been a contributing writer and analyst at Patch.com and other outlets, including GoLocalProv.com. His commentary and analysis can be heard every Friday at 1:45 p.m. ET on the 22-station West Virginia Metro News Radio Network. www.WVMetroNews.com.

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