National Weather Service forecasters have increased confidence that an El Niño climate pattern taking shape in the Pacific will reach potentially historic strength, and that will significantly influence how much snow different regions of the country gets this winter.
The weather service, a division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said late last week that the El Niño has a 90 percent chance of becoming a very strong event during the 2026-27 fall and winter. The agency said there's a 69 percent chance El Niño will be stronger than any event in the record dating to 1950.
El Niño's effects are already being felt across the country, though they differ from region to region. Through early fall, the Southwest, Rockies and nearby Plains may skew wetter than normal, while the Pacific Northwest leans hotter and drier. Parts of the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest also may be drier into late summer, while the South and Southeast have a more mixed rainfall signal. Along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts, El Niño typically increases wind shear that can suppress hurricanes, while the eastern and central Pacific often become more favorable for tropical storm development.
The beginning of winter — Dec. 1 for meteorological winter and Dec. 21, the date of the solstice, for astronomical winter — is still months away. NOAA hasn't made month-by-month predictions, but private weather companies and others have released 2026-27 winter forecasts.
An active southern storm track is a hallmark of strong El Niño winters. OpenSnow, a platform primarily for skiers, snowboarders and other winter enthusiasts, expects the heaviest snow to shift to parts of the Southwest and southern Rockies as El Niño strengthens.
Northern-tier states could see significantly less snowfall than usual, and the northern two-thirds of the country and much of Canada could see a milder-than-normal winter.
"Historically, cold air originating in the Arctic has a hard time spilling southward into Southern Canada and the U.S. during strong El Niño years," OpenSnow said. "That's not to say it won't happen, it's just expected to happen less frequently than usual."
Another outlook from the Farmers' Almanac winter forecast predicts a season of sharp contrasts across the country, with a wetter, stormier southern tier, quick bursts of snow and bitter cold across the North, and a tricky mix of rain, sleet, ice and heavy wet snow in the Northeast. Specific regional forecasts include:
Pacific Northwest: The Almanac expects a more changeable winter and a less dependable snow season. Periods of cold, wind and snow are still possible, but the region may not see consistent snowfall through the season.
Southwest: The active southern storm track could bring more frequent rain and mixed precipitation. Colder stretches could occasionally turn that moisture into wintry precipitation.
Northern Rockies and Northern Plains: Temperatures are expected to average near normal overall, but that doesn't mean winter will be mild. Fast-moving systems could bring sudden cold snaps, snow and blustery conditions.
South Central: Winter is expected to be wetter-than-normal and stormy, especially as systems move through Texas and the Gulf Coast. Occasional pushes of colder air could turn some of that precipitation into sleet, freezing rain or snow.
Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Midwest: The forecast calls for cold and snowy periods mixed with occasional milder breaks. The Almanac said fast-moving clippers could produce snow squalls, gusty winds and bursts of bitter cold. The middle of the country may also see frequent swings between thawing and freezing, which could quickly change road conditions.
Southeast: Winter is expected to be cool, wet and stormy as the southern storm track sends repeated systems through the region. If colder air pushes far enough south, some storms could produce sleet, freezing rain or wet snow.
Northeast and New England: These regions could see one of the more complicated winter patterns. Coastal communities may see more rain or mixed precipitation, while inland areas could get several rounds of heavy wet snow, particularly in January and February. Small changes in temperature and storm track could determine whether a storm produces rain, sleet, freezing rain or accumulating snow.
The competing Old Farmer's Almanac hasn't fully released its 2026-27 winter forecast but in general is calling for a winter of sharp contrasts with the wetter, more active southern storm track tied to El Niño, periodic shots of snow and cold across the North, and a messy mix of snow, rain and ice in the Northeast.
Sign up for free local newsletters and alerts for the
Across America Patch
Patch.com is the nationwide leader in hyperlocal news.
Visit Patch.com to find your town today.