We've been up this well-known creek before. It's not the pandemic-era supply chain disruptions chapping us where we sit this time, but an escalating trade war with Canada.
A 50 percent tariff on certain Canadian goods could make toilet paper more expensive — and perhaps not so soft.
Overall supplies aren't expected to be a problem unless Americans begin panic-buying toilet paper, as they did in the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Even the possibility of a shortage gets Americans in a knot. Pandemic-era supply chains have been running normally again for years, but it's still too soon for many people to talk about the cheap, flimsy stuff that left them feeling cheated on both ply and dignity.
Trump's tariffs cover about $20 billion in selected Canadian imports, including dairy products, alcohol, lumber, clothing, cosmetics and motorcycles, although oil, natural gas and potash were spared.
Canada's retaliatory tariffs of 15 percent, 25 percent and 50 percent on $20 billion in American goods take effect Tuesday. They target steel, dairy, appliances, farm equipment, paper products, electronics and other industries. Canadians will pay those tariffs, but U.S. exporters could lose sales if buyers cut orders or shop elsewhere.
Prices on premium toilet paper and paper towels were already under pressure from rising manufacturing costs, and President Donald Trump's new 50 percent tariff on Canadian pulp, which took effect Aug. 22, is expected to push them even higher.
Canadian softwood pulp makes up 15 percent to 30 percent of the fiber in premium toilet paper and 50 percent to 65 percent of the fiber in premium paper towels.
Experts at North Carolina State University estimate the new tariff could raise toilet paper costs by 11 percent to 20 percent and premium paper towel prices by 31 percent to 38 percent.
"If you use premium bath tissue or paper towels, these new trade dynamics could soon affect both your wallet and your everyday comfort," Ronalds Gonzalez, an associate professor in the university's Department of Forest Biomaterials, said in a news release.
hedacThe tariffs could push manufacturers to replace premium Canadian pulp with U.S.-produced bleached pulp, which is significantly less soft, according to Hasan Jameel, whose research at NC State focuses on pulp production.
In doing so, the "softness of premium tissue products will ultimately be compromised," Jameel said in the news release.
Which brands could feel the squeeze is harder to pin down because manufacturers don't disclose the pulp recipe for every roll. Charmin is the clearest example.
A Natural Resources Defense Council analysis found that nearly half the fiber used in Procter & Gamble's tissue products is northern bleached softwood kraft pulp, most of it from Canada. Other major brands, including Angel Soft, Quilted Northern, Kirkland Signature, Cottonelle and Scott, also use virgin fiber linked to Canadian forests, but their precise exposure to the new tariff isn't public.
The American Forest & Paper Association said U.S. tissue supply chains are designed to be predictable and efficient, but sudden bursts of hoarding can strain a system built to meet normal household demand.
The tariff may not be reflected in shelf prices yet, but experts say consumers could begin feeling it in the coming weeks and months. And the mere prospect of higher prices is enough to revive talk of stocking up before they hit.
Major U.S. retailers haven't reported widespread purchasing limits, though individual stores and online sellers could cap orders if local supplies run low.
Mental health and behavioral experts say existential dread, survival instincts and fear of running out of an essential item fuel the urge to stockpile supplies during a crisis. The world is different than it was in early 2020, however, and this time the impulse may have less to do with scarcity than the calculated fear of paying more later.
Still, toilet paper is having another moment on social media. Many users are questioning the politics and purpose of the trade war with Canada. Others are taking a lighter — and sometimes indelicate — approach to what remains a decidedly first-world problem.
"Time to break out our Covid supply from 2020!" one person said in a thread on Reddit. "My [significant other] bought a large box of industrial-size toilet paper when the great toilet paper run of 2020 happened. We still have quite a few rolls stored in the basement. They are too big for the holder in the bathrooms."
He continued, "I owe her an apology. I guess it wasn't waste of money after all."
"Very bad timing with the explosive diarrhea outbreak. And only going to get worse with the tainted beef Trump recently imported from Argentina," someone said in another Reddit thread, referencing this summer's multistate cyclospora outbreak and the August recall of nearly 30,000 pounds of imported raw beef.
"I got a bidet during the Covid," another person chimed in. "I'm good."
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