Housing Market Paradox: Buyers Have More Power, But Fewer Can Afford To Buy

House hunters haven't had this much negotiating power since the 2008 financial crisis, with 63 percent more home sellers than buyers, according to a new report on September real estate trends.

The real estate brokerage Redfin said a record 41 of the 50 largest U.S. metropolitan areas have shifted to buyer's markets, with Miami, Nashville and Houston leading the trend. Seller's markets remain in only five places, including San Francisco and select metros in the Northeast.

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Redfin said September marked the fifth consecutive month of record-breaking figures, with the seller-to-buyer margin expanding sharply from 56.9 percent in August. This shift comes as active home buyer numbers dropped to levels unseen since tracking started in 2013, while seller listings reached a peak last recorded in 2020.

Nationwide, homebuyers fell 2.4 percent month-over-month to an estimated 928,892, while home sellers rose 1.2 percent to 1,510,784.

The shift toward buyers is especially pronounced in the Sun Belt, led by Florida, Texas and Tennessee, where sellers greatly outnumber buyers. All 13 of the nation's strongest buyers' markets are in the Sun Belt, including four each in Florida and Texas.

By contrast, sellers still have the advantage in just five major markets, concentrated in the New York City suburbs, Milwaukee and San Francisco. Boston and Providence, Rhode Island, are among the markets moving closer to favoring buyers.

Buyer's Market For Some

Redfin said high housing costs and broader economic uncertainty have sidelined many prospective buyers in recent years, leaving sellers competing for a shrinking pool of buyers. That gives buyers more negotiating power, but only those who can afford to purchase a home in the first place.

"This is a buyer's market born out of caution, not strength," Asad Khan, a senior economist at Redfin, said in a news release. "Buyers have tremendous negotiating power in most of the country because so many other would-be buyers have been priced out of the market, or scared off by economic uncertainty."

For house hunters with the budget and job security, today's market offers a rare opportunity to negotiate, pick, or walk away, Khan said, adding, "The irony is that in terms of supply, these are some of the best conditions for buyers in many years–but they have arrived at a time when costs are so high that fewer people can afford to take advantage of them."

Redfin estimated the number of buyers using its own data on how long it typically takes someone to buy a home after their first showing, along with real estate listing and pending sales data. It counted homes listed for sale to estimate the number of sellers. The figures are adjusted for seasonal fluctuations and may be revised.