Government Shutdown Fight Looms: 5 Things You Should Know

WASHINGTON, DC — Running the United States costs a lot of money, and if Republican and Democratic lawmakers are unable to resolve some of their differences over a necessary upcoming spending bill by April 28, the American people may be facing a government shutdown next week. President Trump, still within the first 100 days of his presidency, is facing the most vivid test of his competency to run the government to date in the effort to come to a consensus.

We've been down this road many times before. And in 2013, the government did shut down for 17 days, as Sen. Ted Cruz, the Texas Republican, led a wave of resistance in the country's conservative party which used federal funds as leverage in an attempt to kill Obamacare. That effort failed, and polls showed that the public largely blamed the opposition party at the time, however, the subsequent disastrous rollout of HealthCare.gov, the federal Obamacare exchange, undermined any advantage the Democrats might have gained.

In principle, nobody wants the government to shut down. Cutting off funding for the federal government means national parks close, vital medical research stalls and thousands of federal workers sit at home without pay. It would also be a massive embarrassment for all involved both domestically and internationally. But if a shutdown occurs, it will be because, just like in 2013, lawmakers decided that some other issues are even more important than keeping the government running. (For more information on this and other political stories, subscribe to the White House Patch for daily newsletters and breaking news alerts.)

Here's what you need to know:

1. The wall

Mick Mulvaney, Trump's director of the Office of Management and Budget, said that funding for the border wall on the United States' border with Mexico will need to be a part of the deal to keep the government open. Due to their party's deep resistance to the proposal, however, this point could be a major stumbling block for Democrats toward passing a funding bill. Even some Republicans oppose construction of the wall.

As a newly elected president who campaigned on the wall, Trump could plausibly claim some sort of mandate for the proposal and insist that Democrats back him. But the major problem with this idea is that Trump also consistently promised that Mexico would pay for the wall, and Democrats can plausibly object that the American people should not have to foot the bill. The injection of this divisive issue into government shutdown fight makes a deal less likely.

“Everything had been moving smoothly until the administration moved in with a heavy hand,” said Matt House, spokesman for Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer.

2. Health care

But while Trump's major priority had entered the negotiations, Obama's signature achievement is also up for debate. Funding for the Obamacare subsidies, without which millions of Americans and their families couldn't afford health insurance, is one of the spending items that needs to be approved.

The White House has signaled that funding the subsidies may be a part of trade to get Democrats to agree to fund the wall. But this is a risky move; If Democrats completely obstruct funding for the wall, the Trump administration might get the blame for the Obamacare enrollees who can no longer afford coverage. Trump clearly thinks he can pin any Obamacare failures on the Democrats, but this theory is far from certain.

3. Symbolism

Turning the government shutdown fight into a battle over Obamacare vs. The Wall may be a bad idea for everyone. If negotiations become an ideological battle with Obama's major achievement on one side and Trump's major proposal on the other, partisans may find it very difficult to compromise. In an age of ever-increasing polarization, the party bases on both sides may prefer the government to shut down rather than to see their representatives make a concession.

4. Republican divisions

It's not yet clear how important this factor will be, but it's important to remember that while the Republicans have unified control of the branches of the federal government, deep fissures remain within the party. The divide was never more evident than when the president tried and failed to push the American Health Care Act, a GOP alternative to Obamacare, through the House despite resistance from both moderates and conservative ideologues. This does not bode well for party unity on government funding, especially as reports suggest the administration might try, yet again, to pass the AHCA next week.

Any concessions the GOP makes to the Democrats to fund the government may create a backlash from the Republican Freedom Caucus. While it's hard to see how this would be good for the party as a whole, it's been more than a decade since Republicans held control of the government. They may still operate with the instincts of an opposition party.

5. Trump is projecting confidence

Despite all these challenges, Trump remains confident that the government will stay open.

"I think we’re in good shape," he told reporters Friday.

On Thursday, he was asked whether he would prioritize keeping the government open or passing health care next week. Characteristically, he dismissed the contention that he had to choose between the two, saying he wanted to accomplish both. Nevertheless, the White House has ordered federal agencies to begin preparing for a shutdown, according to Bloomberg — just in case.

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