Another nor'easter is brewing off the East Coast, and while Northern Virginia may escape the worst of the storm, residents could still see gusty winds, occasional rain and unsettled weather next week.
Just three weeks after a powerful nor'easter battered the Mid-Atlantic coastline, AccuWeather meteorologists say a new storm is expected to develop off the Carolina coast this weekend before strengthening and potentially drifting closer to Virginia.
The biggest concerns are farther south, particularly along Virginia Beach and the Outer Banks of North Carolina, where several days of strong winds, pounding surf and coastal flooding could cause significant problems.
For Northern Virginia, including Fairfax, Arlington, Alexandria, Loudoun and Prince William counties, the forecast is less dramatic. But how close the storm comes to the coast will determine how much the region feels it.
The storm is expected to develop this weekend and linger offshore through much of next week.
The National Weather Service's Baltimore-Washington forecast office said Saturday that the developing nor'easter could bring daily chances of showers to the region next week.
However, the storm's exact track remains uncertain.
If it stays farther offshore, Northern Virginia could see relatively limited effects. A track closer to the coast would increase the chances of rain and breezy conditions, particularly in communities east of Interstate 95.
AccuWeather says the storm could move slowly enough to affect coastal communities for several days.
AccuWeather forecasts wind gusts of 40 to 60 mph along a broad stretch of the Mid-Atlantic coast, from southern New Jersey to North Carolina.
The strongest winds are expected near southeastern Virginia and the Outer Banks, where gusts could reach 70 mph in isolated locations.
Those are coastal forecasts, not predictions for Northern Virginia.
Closer to home, the developing storm could bring periods of breezy weather, although the National Weather Service has not indicated that winds of that magnitude are expected across the Washington suburbs.
Coastal flooding is another concern, particularly along Virginia's Atlantic coast.
AccuWeather says persistent northeast winds could push tides 2 to 3 feet above normal in some coastal areas, with locally higher water levels possible from southeastern Virginia into northeastern North Carolina.
The greatest flooding risk is expected along the Atlantic coastline. Communities along Northern Virginia's tidal Potomac River, including Alexandria, should continue monitoring forecasts, but this storm is not currently expected to cause significant local flooding.
The storm could also make life difficult for boaters.
AccuWeather expects hazardous marine conditions from the Delaware Bay through the lower Chesapeake Bay and along the Carolina coast, with disruptions potentially lasting much of next week.
Closer to Northern Virginia, the National Weather Service has issued a Small Craft Advisory for the tidal Potomac River through Saturday evening, with northerly wind gusts reaching 25 mph.
That advisory is associated with the current cold front, rather than the developing nor'easter.
Additional Small Craft Advisories could be needed Sunday into early next week as the coastal storm develops.
There's an interesting possibility with this storm: It could eventually develop some tropical characteristics.
AccuWeather says the nor'easter may gradually become tropical or subtropical as it lingers near the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream.
If it strengthens into a named tropical or subtropical storm, the next name on the Atlantic hurricane season list is Josephine.
But a tropical designation wouldn't necessarily mean a more dangerous storm for Northern Virginia.
AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty said the expected impacts would remain essentially the same regardless of whether the system receives a tropical classification.
Before the nor'easter becomes a concern, Northern Virginia has some chilly weather to get through.
The National Weather Service expects Saturday temperatures to struggle to rise above the 50s across much of the region, with gusty winds of 25 to 35 mph making it feel even cooler.
Temperatures could fall into the upper 20s and 30s in some locations Saturday night into Sunday morning, bringing frost or freezing conditions to parts of the region.
Western Loudoun County and other areas farther inland face some of the greatest potential for freezing temperatures.
Conditions should gradually warm early next week, even as the developing coastal storm introduces another chance of showers.
For now, the nor'easter's biggest impacts appear likely to remain closer to the Atlantic coast, but its track could still change.
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