Northern Virginia's warm, dry fall weather will soon get a reality check as rain returns. By the weekend, residents may finally have a reason to reach for their jackets.
After temperatures climbed into the 70s this week, a passing cold front will bring scattered showers Thursday and another chance of rain into Friday. The payoff? A cooler, sunnier weekend with daytime temperatures settling into the 50s and 60s.
The National Weather Service said the rain will help break a dry spell that has lasted more than two weeks in parts of the region.
And while some Northeast communities could see heavy downpours, Northern Virginia isn't expected to take the brunt of the storm.
Scattered showers are expected Thursday morning, with a possible break in the afternoon and evening, according to the National Weather Service forecast discussion.
Another round of rain could develop late Thursday night and continue into Friday, particularly in communities east of the Blue Ridge Mountains.
Rainfall amounts will depend on where a slow-moving weather front settles.
The Weather Service expects roughly a quarter to a half-inch of rain in areas along and just east of Interstate 95. Communities farther west could receive about 0.1 to 0.3 inches.
Heavier rain is possible farther south, including Virginia's Northern Neck, where totals could reach three-quarters of an inch to 1.25 inches, with isolated amounts approaching 2 inches.
AccuWeather said a narrow band of heavier rain could develop near the Atlantic coast, potentially bringing flooding to some coastal communities. The exact location of that band remains uncertain.
However, the Weather Service does not expect widespread flooding in Northern Virginia.
The rain could provide some relief after an unusually dry stretch.
According to AccuWeather, Washington, D.C., had not recorded measurable rain since Oct. 17 as of Wednesday. Other parts of the Northeast have experienced similarly long dry spells.
The Weather Service said parts of the region remain abnormally dry or in moderate drought, despite some recent improvements. Rain this week could help those conditions.
There is one small catch: The first rain after a long dry spell can make roads particularly slippery.
AccuWeather warned that oil and dust accumulated on pavement can mix with the first rainfall, reducing traction. Wet leaves can also make roads and sidewalks slippery.
Drivers may want to allow a little extra stopping distance, particularly during the Thursday and Friday commutes.
If the week's mild weather had you questioning whether November actually arrived, the weekend should clear things up.
Thursday's highs will reach the low to mid-70s across much of Northern Virginia. Friday will remain relatively mild, with highs ranging from the mid-60s to the lower 70s.
By Saturday, temperatures will drop into the 50s and lower 60s across the region, with cooler conditions in the mountains.
Expect a noticeable breeze, too. Northwest winds could gust around 25 to 30 mph in some locations Saturday, adding a little extra chill.
Good news for anyone with outdoor plans: most of Northern Virginia should dry out by Saturday, with sunshine expected Sunday and Monday.
Overnight temperatures will be noticeably cooler, dropping into the 30s and 40s in many communities.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers, especially during the morning and early afternoon. High near 74. Rain chance: 30%.
Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers after 1 a.m. and patchy fog. Low around 59. Rain chance: 30%.
Friday: A chance of morning showers, followed by gradually improving skies. High near 69. Rain chance: 30%.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy and cooler, with a low around 48. Northwest winds could gust to 20 mph.
Saturday: Mostly sunny and breezy, with a high near 61. Northwest winds could gust to 26 mph.
Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 42.
Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 63.
Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 40.
Monday: Sunny, with a high near 64.
Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 38.
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