Households that heat with electricity could spend slightly more this winter, while natural gas customers may see significantly lower costs, according to a newly released federal energy outlook.
Heating oil users face the steepest increase, while propane costs are forecast to remain flat or decline, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration's 2026-27 Winter Fuels Outlook, released Oct. 6.
The forecasts cover November through March. They are regional estimates, not predictions of individual bills, which will depend on weather, energy use, utility rates and the efficiency of a household's heating system.
Southern households that primarily heat with electricity are expected to spend an average of $1,079 from November through March, up 3 percent from last winter, according to the EIA's regional estimates.
The average residential electricity price in the South, which includes Virginia, is forecast at 15.75 cents per kilowatt-hour for the winter, about 4 percent higher than last winter. Consumption is expected to remain essentially unchanged.
The average winter expenditure includes all household electricity use, not just space heating. That is particularly important in the South, where electricity used for appliances, water heating and other purposes makes up a larger share of the bill.
The EIA also expects wholesale electricity prices in PJM, the regional grid that includes Northern Virginia, to average 41 percent higher in 2026 than in 2025. Wholesale price changes do not translate directly or immediately into residential rates, but they can affect costs over time.
Southern households that primarily heat with natural gas are projected to spend an average of $511 this winter, down 15 percent from last winter.
The EIA expects the average residential natural gas price in the South to fall 16 percent to $14.13 per thousand cubic feet. Household consumption is forecast to increase about 2 percent, but lower prices are expected to more than offset the additional use.
National natural gas inventories are expected to enter the heating season about 2 percent above their five-year average. Strong production and relatively high inventories should help limit price increases even as U.S. liquefied natural gas exports rise, the EIA said.
The forecast does not mean every Washington Gas customer will receive a bill that is 15 percent lower. Residential bills also include utility delivery charges, taxes and other costs that are not directly tied to wholesale gas prices.
Households that use heating oil face the largest expected increase.
The EIA forecasts that heating oil households nationwide will spend an average of $2,115 from November through March, up 21 percent from last winter. The average price is projected to rise 34 percent to $5.26 per gallon.
The agency attributed the increase to higher crude oil and distillate prices. Reduced global refinery activity has limited the supply of distillate fuel, which includes heating oil and diesel.
East Coast distillate inventories were 32 percent below their five-year seasonal average in September and are expected to remain 20 percent to 30 percent below average through the winter.
The EIA forecast assumes households will use about 9 percent less heating oil, partly because the Northeast is expected to have a milder winter than last year. Prices paid by Northern Virginia households will vary by supplier, delivery size and any contract or fuel purchased before winter.
Southern households that heat primarily with propane are forecast to spend an average of $1,164 this winter, essentially unchanged from last winter.
The regional propane price is projected to average $3.19 per gallon, about 1 percent lower, while consumption is expected to remain steady.
Nationally, propane households are expected to spend about 3 percent less. The larger projected decline in other parts of the country reflects differences in prices, temperatures and household consumption.
The EIA noted that propane and heating oil prices respond more quickly to wholesale market changes than regulated electricity and natural gas rates. Wholesale changes typically reach retail customers within four to six weeks.
The EIA expects national temperatures this winter to be close to last winter and the average of the previous 10 winters. The South is expected to experience temperatures similar to last winter.
However, federal forecasters have identified a strong El Niño pattern, which could produce substantial differences from the temperature assumptions used in the energy forecast.
A colder-than-expected winter could increase household consumption and put upward pressure on fuel prices. A warmer winter could reduce both.
The EIA plans to update its forecasts with each monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook. The next update is scheduled for Nov. 10.
Applications are currently open for Virginia's regular fuel assistance program.
The Virginia Energy Assistance Program accepts fuel assistance applications through Nov. 13. The program helps eligible households pay heating costs, including electricity, natural gas, heating oil and propane.
To qualify, a household generally must be responsible for a heating expense and have gross monthly income at or below 150 percent of the federal poverty level. Residents may apply through CommonHelp, call 855-635-4370 or contact their local department of social services.
Virginia also offers crisis assistance for households facing an emergency such as no heat, a shut-off notice or unsafe heating equipment. Applications for equipment repairs, replacements and certain deposits are accepted from Nov. 1 through March 15. Assistance with heating bills and emergency fuel begins in January and continues through March 15.
Dominion Energy's EnergyShare program provides assistance with electricity, natural gas, heating oil, propane, kerosene, wood and other heating sources. The program has no income restriction, but applicants generally must be facing a disconnection, reconnection or payment-plan problem.
Heating assistance is available through May 31, with benefits of up to $600. Veterans and people with disabilities enrolled in approved programs may qualify for an additional $500.
Northern Virginia Electric Cooperative customers can seek help through agencies participating in NOVEC's Operation Round Up program. Participating organizations include ACTS in Prince William County, Northern Virginia Family Service, Western Fairfax Christian Ministries and the Salvation Army's Loudoun County operation.
Washington Gas customers can find state assistance, the Washington Area Fuel Fund, weatherization services and payment-plan information on the utility's Virginia assistance page.
The U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Saver guide recommends several steps:
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