Election 2016: U.Va.'s Larry Sabato Gets it Wrong, Stafford, Spotsylvania Get it Right

FREDERICKSBURG, VA — A majority of voters in Stafford County and Spotsylvania County went for the winner in Tuesday's presidential election, Donald Trump.

A majority of voters in Fredericksburg went for the loser, Hillary Clinton.

That's something that doesn't surprise nationally noted University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato, who lives a tad south of the three aforementioned areas, in Charlottesville.

Here's what did and does surprise him: He and his team at the Crystal Ball wrongly predicted the outcome of the election.

Thus the headline on Wednesday's Crystal Ball piece: "Mea Culpa, Mea Culpa, Mea Maxima Culpa."

Sabato had the Electoral College putting Clinton on top 322-216.

Instead, Trump won 279-228.

"Well, what can we say — we blew it," Sabato wrote.

He added that he and his team regrettably misread the hidden agenda of the electorate.

"We heard for months from many of you, saying that we were underestimating the size of a potential hidden Trump vote and his ability to win," he wrote. "We didn’t believe it, and we were wrong.

"The Crystal Ball is shattered. We’ll pick up the pieces starting next week as we try to unpack what happened in this election, where there was so much dramatic change from just four years ago."

Not so much in Virginia, though, where Clinton actually did better than President Obama four years ago and won the state.

But in Stafford and Spotsylvania, she did just what Obama did four years ago, losing both.

For the record, here's how the region voted:

• In Fredericksburg, Clinton won 60-33 percent, with a fraction of votes going to Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson, Green Party candidate Jill Stein, and write-in names.
• In Stafford County, Trump won 51-42.
• In Spotsylvania County, Trump won 56-38.

Photo: University of Virginia