Hurricane Matthew: Track Shift May Keep Mid-Atlantic Out of Harm's Way

MIAMI, FL — Hurricane Matthew's long-term forecast may keep the storm out of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast as new projections show the storm heading out to sea this weekend after running up the Florida and Georgia coast through Friday. The storm is still expected to be a major hurricane as it approaches Florida, potentially causing severe damage to the Sunshine State.

At 8 a.m. Wednesday, the storm was about 45 miles east-northeast of Cabo Lucrecia, Cuba, with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph, a Category 3 storm, according to the National Hurricane Center. The storm is expected to move through the Bahamas on Thursday.

Some restrengthening of the storm is possible, with tropical storm conditions reaching Florida by early Thursday. Hurricane conditions — with up to 130 mph winds — will likely be felt later Thursday as the storm gets close to the Florida shore.

• Keep up with Hurricane Matthew: Download the new Patch news app for real-time notifications.

The storm isn't expected to make landfall in Florida, instead pushing north along the shore and eventually taking a sharp turn out to sea on Saturday. Forecasters note any slight deviation from the current path could result in a landfall in Florida.

Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina later this week or this weekend, even if the center of Matthew remains offshore, according to forecasters.

A hurricane warning has been issued for the Florida coast north of Miami to Vero Beach, with a hurricane watch for the rest of the coast to the Georgia state line. Evacuations have been ordered for 3 p.m. Wednesday for coastal South Carolina.

Storm surge and rainfall flooding are additional threats for coastal Florida, depending on Matthew's exact track, according to The Weather Channel.

"The current forecast for storm surge inundation from North Palm Beach to the Flagler/Volusia county line is 3 to 5 feet. Waves will enhance water damage along the coast," according to Weather Channel forecasters.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Nicole appears likely to stay far east of the U.S. coast as the storm is forecast to spin erratically south of Bermuda for several days.

The busy week in the Atlantic comes during the peak of the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Forecasters at the hurricane center say the eight-week period that begins in mid-August and runs through mid-October is a “season within the season.” This eight-week period “is often the most active and dangerous time for tropical cyclone activity,” NOAA explained on its website.

The eight-week period is historically responsible for major spikes in tropical weather activity, NOAA said. In fact, it accounts for about 78 percent of all tropical storm days on record. It is also the period when 87 percent of the category 1 and 2 hurricane days on record occurred. In addition, this period is responsible for “a whopping 96 percent of the major (category 3, 4 and 5) hurricane days.”

To find out more about hurricane season and storm preparation, read these related Patch stories:

• 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season’s Peak is Now
• 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Released
• 2016 Hurricane Names: Is Yours On the List?

To keep up with storm activity as the season develops, bookmark the National Hurricane Center’s website, and keep an eye on your hometown Patch site for local information.

With reporting by Sherri Lonon | Graphics courtesy of NOAA