Thanksgiving Travel Forecast 2022: The Best Time To Leave NoVA

NORTHERN VIRGINIA —If you’re among the estimated 54.6 million Thanksgiving travelers this year, timing your departure from Northern Virginia can make the trip less stressful.

The auto club AAA said in its Thanksgiving travel prediction that nearly 49 million Americans will travel by car during the long weekend, which for travel purposes is Wednesday-Sunday, Nov. 23-27. Thanksgiving Day is on Nov. 24.

AAA predicts more than 1.4 million Virginians will travel 50 or more miles over the long Thanksgiving holiday weekend. That’s up slightly from last year, but still down about 6 percent from pre-pandemic travel numbers in 2019.

“Gas prices are about 20 cents higher than they were leading into the holiday at this time last year, but drivers don’t seem fazed,” said Morgan Dean, AAA Mid-Atlantic spokesperson. “Virginia’s current gas price average (11/17) is $3.46, down a nickel in the past week and down $1.40 from the all-time record state high of $4.86 set back on June 14."

More than 91 percent of travelers are expected to hit the road, which is very similar to the number we saw for the holiday last year.

Air travel is projected to be up 6 percent from 2021, but still down about 13 percent from three years ago.

“Consistent with what we have been seeing throughout the year at AAA, the demand for travel has continued and the Thanksgiving holiday is certainly no exception,” said Dean. “Despite increased costs across the board, people are making plans and finding ways to spend time with family and friends.”

Here are the potential trouble spots in Northern Virginia and when they’ll be the busiest:

• I-495 counterclockwise
• I-95 to VA 1-23

Traffic will be busiest throughout the day on Wednesday and from 11 a.m. to 1 p.m. on Sunday.

To avoid the most hectic times, travel early in the morning on Wednesday or before 11 a.m. on Thanksgiving Day. Avoid traveling between 4-8 p.m. on Friday, Saturday or Sunday.

In general, the best and worst times to be on the road are:

Wednesday, Nov. 23 — worst times,1 a.m.-8 p.m.; best times, before 8 a.m., after 8 p.m.

Thursday, Nov 24 — worst times, 11 a.m.-3 p.m.; best times, before 11 a.m., after 6 p.m.

Friday, Nov. 25 — worst times, 4-8 pm.; best times, before 11 a.m., after 8 p.m.

Saturday, Nov. 26 — worst times, 4-8 pm.; best times, before 2 p.m., after 8 p.m.

Sunday, Nov. 27 — worst times, 4-8 p.m.; best times, before 11 a.m., after 8 p.m.

This year is expected to be the third-busiest for Thanksgiving travel, approaching 98 percent of pre-pandemic levels, since AAA began tracking it in 2000.

AAA’s data partner INRIX expects severe congestion in U.S. metro areas — especially around Atlanta, Chicago, New York City and Los Angeles — with some drivers experiencing more than double the amount of time stuck in traffic during peak travel times.

Other busy metros are Boston, Detroit, San Francisco, Seattle and Washington, D.C.

Although most will travel by car, about 4.5 million Americans plan to fly to their Thanksgiving destinations, an increase of 8 percent — 333,000 more travelers — from last year. Thanksgiving air travel is expected to be within 99 percent of pre-pandemic levels.

It’s a good idea to leave for the airport early. Long lines are likely at TSA checkpoints and, “if possible, avoid checking a bag to allow for more flexibility if flights are delayed, or you need to reschedule,” AAA said.

The number of people who are traveling by bus or train or taking a cruise is up by 23 percent from last year, reaching 96 percent of the 2019 volume.