Oscars 2015: Predictions for the 87th Academy Awards

There isn’t one critic who doesn’t weigh in at Oscars time. We all want to guess, as do those of you who make an effort to see as many good movies every year as you can, how the Academy will vote. Will the best movies actually be awarded? In some respects, it seems like every year that question has already been answered in the negative, the day after the nominations. As many people (including me) bemoaning the Selma snubs will tell you, though The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences doesn’t publish a membership list, a study in 2012 showed an overwhelmingly male membership (77%) with a median age of 62. Blacks and Latinos both make up less than 2%. That explains the often predictable and the, shall we say, ‘vanilla’ choices in nomination, and makes guessing winners within that list easier than it should be.

That being said, one of the lovely aspects of this year’s Oscars (apart from the fact that it is being hosted by fan favorite Neal Patrick Harris) is that so many independent movies are vying for top honors. Boyhood, Birdman, and Whiplash were all introduced to audiences at last year’s Sundance Film Festival.

It remains a little ridiculous to compare the quality of acting, directing, writing, and other arts when such a diverse collection of films is released every year. Still, getting recognition from the Academy can boost a film’s box office significantly, and for independent movies, that can make the difference for the upward trajectory or even financial solvency of the filmmakers. That doesn’t meant that a successful studio film as great at Guardians of the Galaxy or Into the Woods, Gone Girl, or The Lego Movie should be ignored.

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For some of us, no matter how predictable or badly chosen some of the winners are, the Oscars is our Super Bowl. We make special drinks, we tweet, and we yell at the screen, possibly more than any football fan. This year, I, Cinema Siren, invite friends and fans to join me as I live blog during the red carpet arrivals and the main event. There will be some moments of silence, and some TEXT SCREAMING, and some lively exchange of opinion. Please come to our party! You can wear a sequined gown or a night gown, a tiara or just a towel. We’ll never know.

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Here now are my predictions, in bold, for winners this year, with a few comments. As Patch is limited in the way we can post lists, I have only included a partial list of the nominations and predicted winners.

For the entire list, go to:

Best Picture
“American Sniper” Clint Eastwood, Robert Lorenz, Andrew Lazar, Bradley Cooper and Peter Morgan, Producers
“Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)” Alejandro G. Iñárritu, John Lesher and James W. Skotchdopole, Producers
“Boyhood” Richard Linklater and Cathleen Sutherland, Producers
“The Grand Budapest Hotel” Wes Anderson, Scott Rudin, Steven Rales and Jeremy Dawson, Producers
“The Imitation Game” Nora Grossman, Ido Ostrowsky and Teddy Schwarzman, Producers
“Selma” Christian Colson, Oprah Winfrey, Dede Gardner and Jeremy Kleiner, Producers
“The Theory of Everything” Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Lisa Bruce and Anthony McCarten, Producers
“Whiplash” Jason Blum, Helen Estabrook and David Lancaster, Producers

*Boyhood has won many times already this awards circuit, but so has Birdman. Both are very inventive in different ways, but I believe Boyhood director Linklater’s 12 year cinematic journey will end with a trip up to the podium with the film’s producers.

Director
“Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)” Alejandro G. Iñárritu
“Boyhood” Richard Linklater
“Foxcatcher” Bennett Miller
“The Grand Budapest Hotel” Wes Anderson
“The Imitation Game” Morten Tyldum

*If justice exists, much as I personally prefer Birdman, Boyhood deserves recognition for its spectacular commitment and authenticity.

Actor
Steve Carell in “Foxcatcher”
Bradley Cooper in “American Sniper”
Benedict Cumberbatch in “The Imitation Game”
Michael Keaton in “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)”
Eddie Redmayne in “The Theory of Everything”

*All these actors did a fine job in their respective films, and I’ll say again that David Oyelowo who starred as Martin Luther King in Selma is an unforgivable snub, but Redmayne should win for his contortions alone. It may be playing to the predictable ‘physical challenge’ card so popular with the Academy, but sometimes those portrayals are worth a win, and this is one of those times. If Keaton, the other favorite, doesn’t win, we can all still welcome him back to the top of the A list, as he has proved time and again he is a talented fellow indeed.

Supporting Actor
Robert Duvall in “The Judge”
Ethan Hawke in “Boyhood”
Edward Norton in “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)”
Mark Ruffalo in “Foxcatcher”
J.K. Simmons in “Whiplash”

*If someone else wins this other than Simmons, expect frogs to fall from the sky.

Actress
Marion Cotillard in “Two Days, One Night”
Felicity Jones in “The Theory of Everything”
Julianne Moore in “Still Alice”
Rosamund Pike in “Gone Girl”
Reese Witherspoon in “Wild”

*Rosamund Pike has won a few awards this season, and since her portrayal in Gone Girl is integral to the film’s success, she deserves them. Julianne Moore has come a long way from the miniseries and movies of the week dotting her early career. She makes a sad, poignant story nearly excruciating to watch.

Supporting Actress
Patricia Arquette in “Boyhood”
Laura Dern in “Wild”
Keira Knightley in “The Imitation Game”
Emma Stone in “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)”
Meryl Streep in “Into the Woods”

*Again with the frogs. Go Arquette. She has been an actress who has aged well onscreen while maintaining her grace and authenticity.

Animated Feature
“Big Hero 6” Don Hall, Chris Williams and Roy Conli
“The Boxtrolls” Anthony Stacchi, Graham Annable and Travis Knight
“How to Train Your Dragon 2” Dean DeBlois and Bonnie Arnold
“Song of the Sea” Tomm Moore and Paul Young
“The Tale of the Princess Kaguya” Isao Takahata and Yoshiaki Nishimura

*The Lego Movie is missing. It probably would have won this award, but the knuckleheads who didn’t nominate the movie in the first place wouldn’t have voted for it, obviously. All fine choices in this category, but Big Hero 6 and How To Train Your Dragon 2 have the most likelyhood of winning.

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The Oscars 2015 – 87th Academy Awards: Live Blog with Cinema Siren

Join Cinema Siren starting at 7 pm E.S.T. on February 22nd as she and her film obsessed cohorts as well as movie lovers all over the world converge online and have a virtual party through the show! Sure, there’ll be analysis and insight, but opinions, compliments, and a little snark are all welcome! We can all see how far off Cinema Siren’s predictions are, and enjoy Neal Patrick Harris at the same time….

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About this column: I am Leslie Combemale, at www.cinemasiren.com, and am a movie lover and aficionado who aspires to get more people back into the beautiful alternate worlds offered in the dark at movie houses across the country. I am the owner of ArtInsights Animation and Film Art Gallery. I interview actors, directors, and production artists from all over the world, and often I’m invited to present at conventions such as the San Diego Comic-Con, where I have been a panelist and host for The Art of the Hollywood Movie Poster, Classic Film History, Disney & Harry Potter Fandom discussions. Visit my film art gallery at www.artinsights.com and see more of my reviews and interviews on www.artinsightsmagazine.com.