NoVA, DC Weather: Weekend Nor'easter Is Possible

WASHINGTON, DC — Weekend pumpkin patch visits and Halloween parties may get rained out by a storm that forecasters are already tossing around the word Nor'easter to describe. The storm that could make its way up the East Coast by the end of the week is still days out, so the forecast is iffy. If it pans out, we could see a cold, windy stretch of rain this weekend.

Nor'easters form within 100 miles of the coast from New Jersey to Georgia when cold air and warm water meet, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Storms develop as the polar jet stream blows cold air south and east from Canada, hitting the Gulf Stream, a warm current in the Atlantic. Typically, the storms appear between September and April, officials say.

A Nor'easter can bring cold air, rain, wind and sometimes snow. There's no snowflakes in the weekend forecast for The District or northern Virginia, although western Maryland and West Virginia saw snow last weekend. Generally, the look ahead calls for high temperatures in the 40s in the region if the Nor'easter forms.

Models show rain from the coastal storm hitting northern Virginia late Friday afternoon or early Saturday, forecasters from the National Weather Service said about the affect on the Baltimore-Washington area.

One model has rain hitting the DC metro around 2 p.m. on Friday, while another shows outer bands of rain entering the region at 2 a.m. on Saturday, according to the National Weather Service. Temperatures will be in the upper 30s to upper 40s, the forecasters project, with nighttime temps dropping to the upper 20s and 30s.

"Temperature profiles are marginal for some wet snow over the higher terrain," the weather service advised in its outlook for the Baltimore-Washington area.

The coastal storm will shift northeast on Sunday, with the potential for lingering rain and snow showers, according to the forecast. Another cold front is possible Sunday afternoon.

"Friday night to Saturday night, rain is possible depending on the specifics of a developing coastal storm. It’s not out of the question it’s a windswept, drenching and cold rain, but it’s also possible the storm tracks more out to sea," says The Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang. "Temperature will depend on how rainy it is. Highs could only be in the 40s in a steady rain scenario, but 50s are more likely if the storm misses."

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The forecast is still early, and The Weather Channel also says its possible the storm's impact may be minimized if it stays offshore.

As early as Friday, rain and gusty winds could hit the Southeast and southern mid-Atlantic as an area of low pressure begins to organize near the coast, according to The Weather Channel. If it does hit, the storm could dampen plans during the last weekend of October.

Here's the week-ahead forecast from the National Weather Service.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 45. South wind 5 to 10 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 66. Southwest wind 6 to 9 mph.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 43. Northwest wind 8 to 11 mph.

Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 56. Northwest wind 11 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 38.

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 51.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 37.

Friday: Partly sunny, with a high near 53.

Friday Night: A chance of rain after 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 42. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Saturday: Rain likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 52. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Saturday Night: A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 42. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Sunday: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 54. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

— With reporting from Patch editors Elizabeth Janney and Kara Seymour.

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