Will Hurricane Florence Hit NoVa?

WASHINGTON, DC — Chances are, as a Northern Virginia resident you're not too worried about hurricanes. And you'd be right to not be concerned. But Hurricane Florence might be worth keeping an eye on over the next few days.

That's because Florence, which is churning in the Atlantic right now, has a growing likelihood of making landfall on the East Coast of the United States sometime next week as a major hurricane, and early indications show that the general D.C. area is right in the crosshairs of the hurricane (although the cone of uncertainty is very wide)

Obviously, the impact of a hurricane here would not be anywhere near as devastating as it would be to a coastal city like Miami, since we have a nice wide buffer of land between us and the sea. But a hurricane that hit us directly enough could still bring tropical storm-force winds and flooding.

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The likelihood of Florence, likely to be a major hurricane next week, striking the United States continues to grow. Currently, the cone of uncertainty stretches from the North/South Carolina border all the way up to Boston, with D.C. and the Chesapeake Bay right in the center, as you can see from the graphic below.

Rain chances up for the weekend. Potentially staying active next week. #StormWatch7 is tracking Gordon's rain & where the next system in the Atlantic could move. #HurricaneFlorence The window wide with high uncertainty now. #GMW pic.twitter.com/7p7yjFxz8w
— Veronica Johnson (@VJohnsonABC7) September 6, 2018

So just how vulnerable is the NoVa area to the impacts of a hurricane? We rarely see tropical storms to begin with, because most hurricanes that venture this far north usually just brush the coast as they roll up northward and into colder waters where they dissipate.

"Storms tracks tend to run parallel to the Gulf Stream and the winds around the Bermuda High, the semi-permanent clockwise steering current off the Southeast coast," the Washington Post noted in a 2014 story. "That’s why direct hits close to D.C. are uncommon."

Theoretically, if a powerful, high-category hurricane moved directly up the Chesapeake Bay at a high speed and into D.C. before it could weaken much, we could experience hurricane-force winds in the Northern Virginia area, but such an event would be exceedingly rare.

"Based upon the RMS 2011 U.S. Hurricane Model, we estimate that wind speeds between 60-70 miles per hour are rare in the District of Columbia, on the order of once per hundred years,” Michael Kistler, hurricane modeler and director of Model Solutions for Risk Management Solutions, told The Huffington Post in a 2011 story. “Areas closer to the Atlantic coast have significantly higher risk from hurricane-force winds, while regions further inland have less wind risk than at the coast.”

Hurricane Preparation Tips

• Get Prepared: Take action now to be prepared for hurricane season. As the storm approaches, it is often
• too late to get ready. Make sure you have family evacuation and communications plans, update your
• emergency supply kit, and evaluate your flood insurance needs.
• Complete a family communication plan. Plan how you will assemble your family and loved ones
• and anticipate where you will go for different situations. Get together with your family and agree on
• the ways to contact one another in an emergency and identify meeting locations.
• Create or restock your emergency kit. Being prepared means having your own food, water and
• other supplies to last for at least 72 hours. A disaster supplies kit is a collection of basic items your
• household may need in the event of an emergency, including an all weather radio.
• Check your insurance coverage. Most homeowner's insurance policies do not cover damage or losses from flooding. Review your policy, ensure you're adequately covered and understand exclusions, and contact your agent for any changes.
• Stay Informed. Know where to go for trusted sources of information during a hurricane event. Monitor
• local news resources for hurricane watches and warnings and follow directions of local officials.
• Determine Your Risk. Find out what types of wind and water hazards are likely in your area. Hurricanes are not just a coastal problem and their effects can reach hundreds of miles inland. Since the U.S. has not been hit by a major hurricane (category 3 or higher) in over a decade, "many people are suffering from hurricane amnesia in the forms of complacency, denial and inexperience."
• Develop an Evacuation Plan. Find out if you live in a storm surge hurricane evacuation zone or if your home is unfit to keep you safe in a hurricane. Speak with family and friends and work out a plan to use their home as an evacuation destination. Be sure to account for pets, since many shelters do not allow them.
• Assemble Disaster Supplies. Supplies are necessary not just for the storm itself, but for the often long and grueling aftermath. Stock up on non-perishable food, water and medicine to support your family for at least a week. Other recommended items are cash and battery-powered radios and flashlights. Since many of us use cell phones, have a solar-powered or hand-crank USB charger.
• Know Your Risk and Plan Ahead for an Evacuation:
• Know how to receive information including recommendations or orders to evacuate.
• If you plan to go to a shelter, notify staff of any special needs you or your family have.
• Do not return to the evacuation area until the evacuation order is lifted.

Get Tech Ready
Technology has made it easier to prepare for emergencies, but it can be unreliable during big storms if you haven't planned to keep your gadgets protected and powered up. Here are some tips to make sure you are tech ready:

Be Informed

Here are basic commands to get started:

• Download the FEMA app. Receive weather alerts from the National Weather Service for up to five different locations anywhere in the United States. To search for open shelters (for disaster survivors): text SHELTER and a Zip Code to 43362 (4FEMA)

Make A Social Media Plan

• Use text messages, social media and email to connect with friends and family during emergencies.
  • Mobile networks can become overwhelmed during emergencies, making it difficult to place and receive phone calls. Text messages require less bandwidth, which means they are able to be transmitted more reliably.
  • Social media channels such as Facebook and Twitter can also be an effective way to update family and friends during emergencies. Facebook's Safety Check feature allows users to easily post a status update indicating that they are safe during a time of disaster.
• Register with American Red Cross's Safe & Well site to let family and friends know you're okay.
• Have an emergency charging option for your phone and other mobile devices. Smartphones have become a vital tool to receive emergency alerts and warnings,, so it's important to make sure you can keep them powered up in an emergency.
• At home: Before severe weather, charge all of your electronic devices. If the power goes out, preserve battery power by minimizing device use. Keep a back-up power source on hand to recharge your phone so that you can stay connected even during an extended power outage.
• In your car: Keep a portable phone charger in your vehicle at all times, and consider purchasing a back-up power supply to keep in your vehicle as well.
• Change the settings on your phone to low power mode or place it on airplane mode to conserve energy.

• Store important documents in a secure, password-protected jump drive or in the cloud.
  • Capture electronic versions of important documents such as insurance policies, identification documents, and medical records. Don't forget to include your pet's information.
  • Back-up your computer to protect photos and other personally important electronic documents.
  • Scan old photos to protect them from loss.
  • Keep your contacts updated and synced across all of your channels, including phone, email and social media. This will make it easy to reach out to the right people quickly to get information and supply updates. Consider creating a group listserv of your top contacts.
  • Create a group chat via a texting app or a thread for family/friends/coworkers to communicate quickly during a disaster.

Sign up for Direct Deposit and electronic banking through your financial institution so you can access your payroll funds and make electronic payments wherever you are. Federal benefit recipients can sign up by calling (800) 333-1795 or at GoDirect.org.

Additional information can be found on the Virginia Department of Health website.

Residents readying for a storm can get tips and advice on the federal government's Ready.gov website. To keep up with potential storms during hurricane season, bookmark the National Hurricane Center's website. For local weather and severe weather alerts, visit the National Weather Service online.

Includes reporting by Patch editors Paul Scicchitano and Deb Belt

Image: Hurricane Patricia in 2015. (Photo by Scott Kelly/NASA via Getty Images)