Five Futures: Enumclaw's Next Two Decades Part 2

Included in  Winds of Tomorrow--Comprehensive Plan for the City of Enumclaw:  2005-2022 is "Enumclaw's Vision," a scenario describing one day in the life of a typical family of three in 2024.  It illustrates what the town would be like if the Plan's forecasts were accurate and recommendations successfully implemented.  The father and son head down a trail on Battersby property that the city bought from the railroad back in the 90s.  They are off to the boy's first day at J. J. Smith School and the father's job at a big insurance company downtown.  The mother takes the Mini to her job at the agricultural cooperative that helps local farmers reach distant markets.  Growth in Enumclaw has continued since 2005 and now land within the Urban Growth Boundary is nearly full.  Housing during that time continued to be single family homes in developments, despite zoning that allows it throughout the city and the trend toward apartments and condominiums elsewhere.  Now in 2024, the city faces the difficult choice of increasing its density or seeing the predicted Plateau growth occur elsewhere.(1)

"Enumclaw's Vision" was based upon the assumption that current trends would continue.  However, the rapid growth on the Plateau came to an abrupt halt three years after the report, and J. J. Smith School closed in 2009 following nine years of declining enrollment in the district.  Annexations did proceed, taking the city limits closer to the Urban Growth Area limits.  The big question for us is whether new housing demand will resume after its collapse or whether other factors will drive a different trend.  It is interesting that in the scenario above, the two choices--higher density or lack of growth--are both seen as negative.

The most accurate future scenarios are based upon an understanding of significant trends--whether they will accelerate, slow down, or reverse, and what latent new trends will emerge.  The 1980 and 2005 planners did not foresee a few major changes triggered by internal and external factors, and the same could happen now as we make forecasts for 2033.  Nevertheless, here are five brief scenarios, based on trends that will likely influence where Enumclaw will be at that time.

Enumclaw in 2033

Scenario 1:  Growth slows to zero but economy gains on tourism.  Enumclaw drivers experienced a steady but moderate increase in gasoline prices, tempered by a shift from petroleum to natural gas in non-transportation uses and continuing improvements in vehicle gas mileage.

The economy in the region continued to be strong and employment is now up for a variety of reasons:  Some outsourced jobs returned to the region as wages and the standard of living increased in the developing world.  The trend of the shrinking middle class slowed, and reversed by 2020 as populist sentiment returned, so consumers had both money to spend and confidence to do so.  The burden of the national debt on economy eased over time, primarily because of a  change in the internal revenue code, taxing income from investments and income at the same rates.

The population is now 18,000.  Growth was slow for many years, but the annexed lands eventually filled.  The low birth rate then kicked in, leaving the population virtually unchanged for the past five years.

Despite only modest growth in 20 years, the economy of Enumclaw is now strong.  The city opted for tourism as the primary source of additional revenue.  The neighboring cities of Auburn, Bonney Lake, and Black Diamond are all on the way to Mount Rainier and the Cascade forests, but are not strategically located like Enumclaw.  Traffic from all three routes converges at Enumclaw, the final stop before the wilderness.  The town's location is also unusual in that tourism through here is year-round.  A number of bed and breakfasts are now a draw, and many out-of-towners attend our annual tours of historic homes, working farms, and area gardens.  Enumclaw has become a magnet for artists.  Many of them have set up shop here, and several galleries and numerous arts events bring in outsiders.  The town's biggest attraction as a destination has been the Expo Center, which has become a leading venue in the region. 

Local businesses have been modestly successful, particularly those oriented to tourists.  A large retirement facility also located here, complete with condominiums, assisted living, and care facilities. Finally, most locals still find it economically feasible to live here and commute to work elsewhere.

Scenario 2:  Many commuters leave Enumclaw following increased cost of gasoline, continued economic problems, and global competition in regional industries.  The economy never really recovered from the Great Recession of 2008, with several smaller dips and comebacks since then.  Unemployment reached a high of 11% and a low of 5%, but the lows have been short-lived.  The price of gasoline has risen to $10 a gallon, resulting in a decreased demand for housing in Enumclaw, and a drop in population to 15,000, following a peak of 20,000 eight years ago.  The loss of population, mainly commuters, has left many houses in town empty and some abandoned. 

Enumclaw commuters got a boost with a number of strong years for the commercial airplane market and continued growth in the short term of the region's high tech industry.  However, China eventually built up its aviation manufacturing and is now the world leader, and India took the lead in information technology.  One bright spot for the state has been agriculture, as the U.S. economy has shifted more to feeding the world.  However, this has primarily benefited eastern Washington and our ports, and it appears our dominance in agriculture will be surpassed by Africa in a few years.

The transfer of wealth in the United States from the middle class to the wealthy has continued unabated for sixty years and shows no signs of slowing.  For Enumclaw, the effect has been as great as the transition to a bedroom community in the 20th Century.  Now, despite the gradual decline within the city, the surrounding area has become a magnet for the ultra-rich.  They have been buying up large adjoining properties, tearing down 30-year-old mansions, and creating super-estates the area has never seen.  Most Enumclaw natives can now afford to live only in town.

Scenario 3:  Gradual acceptance of the electric car and solar power and a strong regional economy benefit Enumclaw commuters, but world crises are driving the local prosperity.  Although the cost of gasoline climbed sharply through 2025, increases since then have been modest because demand has shrunk so much.  Advances and acceptance of the electric car have been gradual but steady, and the number of them eventually reached a critical mass to impact the oil industry.  A similar pattern followed with solar power.  Both trends had a significant impact on Enumclaw.  The cost of driving long distances to work was becoming prohibitive, but rather than moving, many commuters were among the early adopters of electric cars beginning about 2015, when several workplaces added charging stations.  But as improvement in the range of the vehicles increased, charging at work became less important.  Then the numbers of drivers surged.  As a result, the population of Enumclaw has grown steadily for the past ten years, despite a dip in the late teens.

The city was able to attract a solar equipment company to locate here in 2018.  Various incentives for solar products produced in Washington, launched in 2008 and renewed in 2020, benefited consumers and strengthened this manufacturing sector in Washington, even when it appeared for a while that China would dominate the market. 

The economy in the region has generally been strong for a decade, with our town as one of the beneficiaries.  Unfortunately, the benefits have come from a world in crisis.  For several years, we have been involved in a series of small wars in Africa, protecting U.S. interests in agri-business and water resources.   (Corporate investment there escalated as the economies of Latin America flourished and became more independent of the United States.)  The reason this turmoil affected the Puget Sound and Enumclaw economies is that the wars have been primarily waged by remote control.  A segment of the hi tech industry, particularly the video game companies east of Lake Washington, has been a major player in the new systems, while Boeing, even with losses to China in airplane manufacturing, has made up for it with its satellite and drone advances.  These companies are where many people from Enumclaw work.

Although the city itself is financially sound, the downtown never really revived.  Enumclaw has been a bedroom community for close to 75 years, and has been unable to get those in its housing developments to shop here in sufficient numbers.  Growth has been a challenge for retail businesses here.  More people should have translated into more customers, but in fact, the population increase was a trigger for the financial viability of a megastore at the edge of town, and that was devastating to the small businesses.  Our one remaining hardware store, now a five-generation local family enterprise, was forced to close, and the empty storefronts on Cole Street reminded old timers of the Great Recession early in the 21st century.

There were, however, local beneficiaries of growth--car dealerships, real estate offices, the Courier-Herald, and restaurants.  However, their success was challenged by new competitors.  The opening of a Toyota dealership in town took a large market share from the other three, and out-of-town restaurateurs put several family-run operations out of business. 

Scenario 4:  A strong economy and moderate gas prices triggered a decade of rapid growth in Enumclaw, but the bubble burst in 2028 with a global food crisis followed by economic depression.  Several factors triggered rapid growth in the city between 2020 and 2028, with the population slightly down from its high of 30,000.  Relatively low gas prices, a new growth management plan in 2022, followed by almost immediate annexation of additional lands, and a building bubble attracted new commuters.  Besides the new apartment buildings and housing developments, primarily smaller starter homes.  Walmart, helped by tax and other incentives from the city, built a large complex on 244th Street in 2025.  Additionally, because of reasonable transportation costs and improved highways, the city was able to attract five small industries to set up shop here. 

Trouble started in 2029 with a sharp rise in global food prices.  Within a year, they doubled.  Civil strife in many parts of the world began as food riots and ended with several revolutions.  Even the U.S. had its share of riots, but Enumclaw was spared.  Prices have since fallen back to near their previous levels, but the world-wide recession they triggered is still with us.  Two of the new factories have closed and unemployment here is back up to nine percent.  Foreclosures are up again, although apartments are still occupied to near capacity.  The Walmart closed once the incentives expired.  Local poverty increased in recent years, particularly among seniors because of cuts in Medicare and Social Security.  With the socioeconomic profile of the city dropping during the past fifteen years, the population is more vulnerable to the swings of the economy than in previous generations.

As if the economic woes were not enough, Enumclaw experienced a massive forest fire east of town, similar to the one in 1902.  Again, the town was spared, but many homes were destroyed in the Mount Peak and foothills areas.

Scenario 5:  Escalating gas prices and low birth rates caused the population of Enumclaw to shrink, but the problem of downsizing a city proved almost unsolvable. The economy has been much more volatile in the 21st century than the last half of the 20th.  With the upswings also came inflation, but wages did not keep pace.  The cost of building houses started to climb but people's ability to purchase them was limited, so it was very competitive for builders.  Early on, massive developments in Black Diamond and Bonney Lake had the economy of scale, along with shorter commutes, so Enumclaw missed out on most of that growth spurt.  The situation was exacerbated in the 2020s when the price of gasoline doubled in five years, forcing many wage earners to move closer to work.   Since then, populations have stabilized in the region, but Enumclaw has lost 3,000 residents.

One unique reversal of history occurred in 2022.  While the number of Enumclaw residents remained about the same, the school district population climbed substantially.  Black Diamond petitioned the State Board of Education to become its own district once again.  The Board had consolidated them with Enumclaw back in 1975,(2) but demographics changed considerably over the sixty-year period, and they wanted their own district again.

Downsizing the town was not an easy task.  The infrastructure--sewers, waterlines, streets--remained the same size, but the number of people to support them declined.  So rates and taxes have both gone up substantially.  Downsizing is especially painful to employees who lose their jobs both in the public and private sector, especially now that other jobs are difficult to find.  Many small businesses have closed.  Even tourism is down, the one bright spot in Enumclaw's economy.

In early 2032, the mayor appointed a task force to consider how Enumclaw could thrive as a smaller town without any prospects for growth.   We have too many houses, many of them are too big, and some of them are abandoned.  It is difficult to even consider tearing them down, although that will get easier as they continue to deteriorate.  Downtown is also a challenge.  Since half of the buildings are empty, we could condense the city center into a smaller area the way you would prune a fruit tree to make it healthier, but how do you go about that?  The town pioneers were regularly moving buildings around with rollers and teams of horses, but that was in a time of expansion, not contraction.  The task force finally disbanded, unable to come up with a downsizing strategy.

A citizens' group formed quite spontaneously about the same time to look at the same issues.  Rather than focus on the 3,000 citizens who had left, they looked at the 14,000 who remained.  They realized that 9% unemployment meant 91% employment.  They decided to look to those who were fortunate enough to escape the ravages of the recession to save the town.  They proposed a bond issue to enable the city to negotiate with mortgage holders for deeply discounted purchase of abandoned and foreclosed homes.  As they were acquired, the city would then offer them singly, at cost, to town residents only, who wished to rehabilitate them for sale, rent, or habitation.  Those that did not sell within two years were to be demolished.  The proposal was accepted by the City and surprisingly, the bond issue passed.  We have yet to see if it will be successful.  The citizens' group was unable to come up with a parallel proposal for commercial buildings.  Clearly, reducing a city's size while keeping it vibrant is one of the most difficult challenges for Enumclaw and many other municipalities in the coming years.

Making an accurate forecast twenty years into the future is both difficult and unlikely. There are multiple variables, and an unpredicted change in one affects the others. Nevertheless, we try to see what will happen so that we can have a hand in creating a future we want.  To increase our odds of success, we study our past, objectively analyze current conditions, and try to understand whether and how trends are changing.  Finally, we recognize that in creating a desirable future, we must also adapt to factors that we can't influence and surprise events, often negative, that we can't anticipate.

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NOTES

1.  "Enumclaw's Vision."  Winds of Tomorrow--Comprehensive Plan for the City of Enumclaw:  2005-2022.  .  "Chapter 3 Community Issues, Vision and Goals."  June 2005. p.1-5.

2.  "Black Diamond School circa 1916."  Black Diamond Now.  Black Diamond Historical Society.  April 16, 2013.