Pierce County Prepares For Potential Second, Third Wave Of Virus

PIERCE COUNTY, WA — Pierce County has not reported a single death due to COVID-19 in the last four days. Over the past two weeks, there have been an average of 12.6 new coronavirus cases each day. That's equates out to 19.3 cases per every 100,000 Pierce County residents over the last 14 days, safely below the state's end goal of 25 cases or fewer.

By most metrics, Pierce County has succeeded in flattening the curve and bringing the coronavirus under control. Officials say that means it's time to look ahead, consider the possibility of a second or even third wave of the virus, how we can dampen the impact of those waves, or even prevent them from hitting in the first place.

"History teaches us pandemics usually consist of more than a single “curve.” In fact, it can be more helpful to think of them in terms of waves," writes Nigel Turner, Division Director with the Office of Communicable Disease, Tacoma-Pierce County Health Department.

In a blog post, Turner explains that by looking at past pandemics, health experts can try to predict what will happen next. He says one potential model can be found in the 1918 influenza, also called the Spanish Flu, which came in three waves. The influenza first appeared in spring of 1918. Then a second, much deadlier wave came in the fall of 1918, and then a final wave started in winter of 1918. By the time the third wave ended in summer 1919, 50 million people had died worldwide.

The coronavirus has been nowhere near as deadly, with an estimated 413,000 deaths worldwide so far, but concerns that it could return in waves like the 1918 influenza must be taken seriously, say health officials.

"We don’t know exactly when those waves will come. But history tells us late fall or early winter is a reasonable bet," said Turner.

To make sure Pierce County is in the best shape possible if and when those waves do come, health officials are urging everyone to remain cautious, even as the number of coronavirus cases dwindle and businesses return to work. They're asking residents to continue following safety guidelines like:

• Keeping six feet apart from those outside your household.
• Wearing a face covering when in close proximity with others.
• Practicing good hygiene by frequently washing your hands and covering coughs and sneezes.
• Getting tested immediately if you have COVID-19 like symptoms.
• Staying home if you are sick.

"The past can predict the future, but that doesn’t mean it must," said Turner. "If we plan well and work together, we can be prepared when the next waves approach Pierce County."

Read more:

Turner's full blog post can be found on the health department's website here.

The CDC's history of the 1918 influenza can be found here.