40 Percent Of Puget Sound Jobs Will Be Impacted By Coronavirus

SEATTLE, WA — The economic ripple effect of the new coronavirus outbreak will likely have widespread impacts on Puget Sound jobs for several months to come, according to a new report published Tuesday.

The report, sponsored by the Seattle Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce, found severe impacts in the near-term for approximately 40 percent of all jobs in King, Pierce and Snohomish Counties, including wage reduction and temporary layoffs.

"Many of these jobs will start again once the virus threat has passed and the economy starts up again," the report says. "Not all businesses will survive this challenge."

The report's authors said the timetable for economic recovery depends on controlling the virus, and all businesses' immediate focus should be helping stop the spread of COVID-19.

Workers in at-risk industries by county:

King: 656,400
Snohomish: 156,300
Pierce: 149,100

Nearly 1 million workers fall into two risk categories in the report, including 419,400 workers facing immediate risks. That category includes retail workers, food service workers, cashiers, bartenders and other service industry workers, whose places of employment have been shuttered or completely transformed by recent social distancing orders.

With employees across the region advised to work from home, the report notes the absence of most of Amazon's workforce around downtown Seattle has removed tens of thousands of customers who would normally spend approximately $25 each at lunch restaurants, cafes and other small businesses.

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More employees working remotely has also prompted a sharp drop in rideshare use, the report finds, with trips down at least 50 percent compared to a normal week.

Another major element of economic disruption the report finds is the mass cancellation of public events, as mandated under the governor's order. Visit Seattle estimates the cancellation of events, including Emerald City Comic Con, at the Washington State Convention Center alone will lead to an economic loss of nearly $37 million by April. If the closures remain in place through May, that estimate quadruples.

Other sectors feeling immediate impacts include the travel industry, with all major airlines cutting back flight service. According to the Port of Seattle, Sea-Tac Airport has recently seen just 16,000 to 17,000 daily visitors, compared to the 50,000 typical for this time of year.

According to the report, tourism is the fourth largest industry in Washington, employing approximately 188,000 people and generating an estimated $24.4 billion in annual spending. Data provided by Visit Seattle shows several major hotels reporting just 51 percent occupancy, down about 20 percent from the same time in 2019.

The delay of Seattle's cruise season, which may be on hold until at least July, is expected to lead to millions in lost revenue in the city, especially along the waterfront.

The Chamber's report concludes with five recommendations to support economic recovery after the outbreak is over, acknowledging some impacts may be felt for decades.

"The extent of these impacts reaches economywide and may linger for generations," the report says. "At the time of this draft, the virus still spreads, and new economic shockwaves follow daily."

Report outlines five "rebuild strategies"

• Loosen Lending and Monetary Policy: Monetary policy includes the primary tools of the federal government, but lending support to borrowers must be broadly implemented.
• Rent and debt service relief: Landlords, their financiers, and the federal government must collaborate to give renters and borrowers (commercial and residential) significant flexibility for three or more months after the virus is under control (which is an undetermined date at this point.) This must go beyond support for small businesses and include medium sized and some larger businesses as well. Offices with employees numbering into the several hundreds will face choices of paying rent or retaining employees.
• Direct payments and support (all sectors): Major employers with capital reserves have stepped into the role traditionally for government to provide direct assistance to small businesses affect in their area. Government provides grants and immediate relief. Employees and households will need direct support.
• Government spending: Capital investments must proceed. Infrastructure investments support communities directly and they create jobs that support local and regional economies.
• Fiscal policy shifts: Washington and its cities depend primarily on sales and use and similar taxes, excise taxes, and property taxes. Cities and the state will find budgeting very difficult in the months ahead to cover the costs of spending critical for relief right now. New funding sources and new approaches to revenue management will be required.

Read the full 19-page report on the Seattle Chamber website.