Rainy And Mild: Winter Weather Predictions For Washington

As the Seattle region enjoys a stretch of perfectly pleasant weather, there's no better time for musing on the dark winter months ahead.

Since there can never be too many weather predictions in the Pacific Northwest, this week we're in luck: both the Farmers' Almanac and its rival, the Old Farmer's Almanac, have released their annual, competing long-range winter forecasts.

Any confusion about the two sources is completely understandable. Both are compendiums of useful information about the weather, gardening and just grooving on nature in general. And though the Old Farmer’s Almanac, established in 1792, is the oldest of the two, the Farmers’ Almanac is no first bloom of spring. It’s been around since 1818.

Both publications claim about 80 percent accuracy in winter forecasts over the 200 years they’ve been peering into looking glasses that rely on different measurements that are somewhat mysterious.

The Old Farmer’s Almanac forecast was originally based on a still-secret formula developed by founder Robert B. Thomas of Dublin, New Hampshire. Thomas believed magnetic solar storms influenced the Earth’s weather. His notes remain locked away at the almanac’s offices, but they provide the basis of a new forecast model informed by weather, solar and atmospheric science.

The secret formula used by the Farmers’ Almanac is based on sunspot activity, tidal forces resulting from the moon’s gravitational pull, planetary alignment and other factors. It’s known only by the almanac’s weather prognosticator, who goes by the pseudonym Caleb Weatherbee.

As winter approaches — it officially arrives in the United States on Monday, Dec. 21 — “preparing for the unexpected is more important than ever,” Peter Geiger, Farmers’ Almanac editor, said in a news release.

The Farmers’ Almanac calls its forecast the “winter of the Great Divide” with “cold and snowy conditions in the North, drought in the West and everything crazy in between.”

Here in Washington, we’re in for rainy weather west of the Cascades, with above-normal snowfall in the central and eastern parts of the state.

Here’s a snapshot of what the Farmers’ Almanac says could be in store across America:

• Cold in the Great Lakes and Midwest, the Northern and Central Plains and the Rockies, with abundant and possibly above-normal snow in parts of the western Dakotas, Wyoming, northern portions of Colorado and Utah.
• Average precipitation and chillier temperatures in the Southeast.
• Mild temperatures but continued drought conditions in Arizona and Southern California.
• Tranquil weather mixed with shots of cold and wintry precipitation in New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma and western parts of Arkansas and Louisiana.
• Rainy, wet weather along the Pacific Coastal Plain from Northern California to the western portions of Oregon and Washington.
• “Winter wild card” weather from the Tennessee and lower Ohio River valleys to the north and east through New England, with a mix of intense systems delivering a wintry mix of rainy, icy and snowy weather throughout the winter.

The Farmers’ Almanac predicts winter’s biggest storm may come around mid-February with a blizzard dumping 1 to 2 feet of snow all along the Eastern Seaboard.

The Old Farmer's Almanac predicts milder winter weather

Blame it on forecaster optimism or Mother Nature throwing our disaster-weary souls a bone, but most of us are actually in for a reprieve from harsh winter weather this year. The centuries-old forecaster is predicting a light winter for most of the United States, with warmer-than-normal temperatures expected for a large part of the country.

The Old Farmer’s Almanac predicts the Pacific Northwest can expect below-normal snowfall totals, with the snowiest periods in early December and mid-to-late February. Temperatures are expected to be close to normal, with the coldest periods in mid-January, and early and late February.

Not every state will experience ideal winter weather, forecasters say, though affected areas are limited. Uncommonly chilly temperatures are predicted in some Western states and far northeastern New England.

On the precipitation side of things, expect “wet” to be a wintertime constant. Rain or snowfall that is average to below average will be the standard throughout most of the country, while snowfall will be greater than normal in the Northeast, Wisconsin, Upper Michigan, the High Plains and northern Alaska.

What’s shaping this year’s weather? Forecasters attribute this year’s prediction to rising temperature trends across the world.

The Old Farmer's Almanac, founded in 1792, is the oldest continuously published periodical in North America, according to its website. In fact, the almanac has released weather predictions since George Washington was president.

Each year, the authors of the Almanac go back to see just how accurate their predictions were for the previous year. When it comes to the 2019-20 winter season, they found that they were 80.5 percent accurate, which is just above their typical 80 percent.