Climate Outlooks Favor Hotter August In Washington: NOAA

SEATTLE — The odds are tilted in favor of a hotter-than-usual August for Washington and much of the United States, according to new outlooks released this week by the Climate Prediction Center.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its August analysis Monday, noting "plenty of weather extremes" many states have already navigated this summer, including torrential rains, flash-flooding, and record-breaking heat. August marks the final month of meteorological summer, and climatologists see the heat trend lingering in most states, apart from a cooler trend expected in parts of the Southwest.

The monthly maps illustrate the likelihood of warmer temperatures than average, but do not necessarily indicate extreme heat will materialize. The odds are high for a wide swath of the country, but a little less certain for Washington.

"The highest likelihood for above-average temperatures (60-70%) is over Arkansas, Texas, Oklahoma, and northern Louisiana," wrote Tom Di Liberto, a NOAA meteorologist. "However, a broad area including the West Coast, the northern tier, the Great Plains, the Midwest, and the Northeast have odds exceeding 50% of a hotter-than-average August. On the flip side, across the Southwest, odds favor a cooler-than-average month, reflecting a continued strong North American monsoon bringing rain, clouds, and cooler temperatures."

NOAA said this month's forecast is in line with usual temperature patterns during an August La Niña, along with a strong monsoon keeping the Southwest on the cooler side. On the precipitation front, Washington and much of the Midwest are slightly favored to run drier than normal in August, while the Southwest and Carolinas are likely to be wetter.

While drought conditions continue to worsen in Texas and much of the West, NOAA said ample rainfall vastly improved the outlook for states like Utah, Arizona, New Mexico and Colorado.

In the nearer term, the Climate Prediction Center shows even higher odds for heat across the Pacific Northwest during the second week of August. The National Weather Service's current 7-day forecast shows afternoons in the 80s returning by this weekend and continuing into next week. During last week's heat wave, Seattle set a new record for most consecutive days at or above 90 degrees.