Coronavirus: WA Hospitals Lack Beds To Handle Likely Cases

SEATTLE, WA — Hospitals across Washington will be overwhelmed with coronavirus patients in nearly all possible scenarios for infection rates, according to a ProPublica report released Tuesday, using data from the Harvard Global Health Institute.

The report backs up the repeated calls by public health officials to "flatten the curve" — slowing the spread of the virus through social distancing in order to avoid a scenario where more Americans are infected by COVID-19 than can receive care at their local hospital.

But even under "moderate" infection levels, all of the Washington regions modeled by researchers would see an influx of patients far greater than their hospitals are currently equipped to handle, ProPublica found.

The study looked at hospital capacity in referral regions across the U.S., using data from 2018. In Washington, it included Olympia, Seattle, Spokane, Tacoma and Yakima. Researchers considered different infection levels — 20%, 40%, or 60% of the population — and stretched them over six, 12 and 18-month timelines.

A "moderate" infection level would mean 40% of American adults contracting COVID-19 over 12 months, according to the Harvard team. By contrast, in a worst-case scenario, 60% of the population could be infected within just six months.

Hospital capacities in each region

From ProPublica:

Even using researchers' "moderate" scenario, all of the Washington regions modeled will need to expand their hospital capacities to accommodate likely surges in coronavirus patients. Each region's intensive care units, where severe COVID-19 cases are treated, will also be overwhelmed unless they are expanded, the researchers found.

Olympia would be overwhelmed in the "moderate" scenario, getting an influx of 27,000 patients and requiring 900 beds over one year. That's 5.2 times the region's current capacity.

In Seattle, hospitals would receive about 200,000 coronavirus patients in the moderate scenario, requiring 6,670 beds over one year — or 4.9 times the region's current capacity.

In the Spokane area, hospitals would receive 102,000 patients needing 3,390 beds over one year in the moderate scenario, which is 2 times the region's current capacity.

The Tacoma area would see an estimated 53,000 patients over a year in the moderate scenario, requiring 1,770 beds — 4.8 times its hospitals' current capacity.

The Yakima area would receive about 18,300 coronavirus patients over one year in the moderate scenario, needing 610 beds over one year, which is 3.1 times the region's current capacity.

Even in researchers' best-case scenario, in which social distancing measures limit the infection rate to 20% of the population and spread the outbreak over 18 months, hospitals in Washington and across the U.S. will still need to increase capacity in order to treat all those who get infected.

Indeed, state officials are reportedly trying to do just that — Gov. Jay Inslee said Tuesday that the state may soon get 1,000 emergency hospital beds from the federal government, according to the Seattle Times.

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Some regions will be better-equipped than others, especially those in urban areas, which serve larger populations than rural hospitals, according to ProPublica.

"A serious epidemic in Grand Forks, North Dakota, will be much different than in Boston," Dr. David Blumenthal, president of the health care think tank The Commonwealth Fund, said in the ProPublica report.

Across the country, hospitals have already started preparing for the influx of patients by canceling elective surgeries and trying to discharge patients sooner. But that may not be enough to get a handle on the pandemic unless hospitals also add more beds, according to the research.

ProPublica, a Patch Partner, is a nonprofit newsroom that investigates abuses of power and other public concerns. Click here to see ProPublica's full story and specifics about hospitals in your area.