Rain-Snow Mix Seen For Seattle During Monday Storm

SEATTLE, WA - What will the Monday winter storm bring to the Seattle area? The latest forecasts released Monday morning show a lot less snow, and the possibility of a mix of sleet and rain.

Seattle, Bellevue, Issaquah, and Renton might only end up with a max of 3 inches of snow by Tuesday morning. But areas to the north, like Everett and Mill Creek, might get as much as 6 inches.

The Monday storm is heading our way from over the Pacific Ocean. That's different from the other recent storms, which came from the Pacific and down through the frigid Fraser River Valley in British Columbia. Monday's storm will bring more moisture and warmer air, which could cause precipitation to fall as rain or sleet.

Whatever falls on Monday, it's going to make a mess.

On Sunday night, meteorologists were predicting as much as 8 inches in the Seattle area plus the possibility of an ice storm. But all meteorologists were clear about the uncertainty associated with the storm.

"We can’t stress enough how highly sensitive this forecast is to slight changes in the track of the low — if the low takes a more southern route than expected, 8 inches of snow could fall from Tacoma northward. A more northern track (say, over Mount Vernon) would mean much less snow— and more of a rain/snow mix — for the metro area," Seattle Weather Blog's Justin Shaw wrote Sunday.

The National Weather Service called the Monday and Tuesday forecast "extremely complicated."

"A period of mixed precipitation could cut into snow totals. Hazardous travel is expected regardless," the NWS wrote on Twitter Sunday.

UW meteorologist Cliff Mass was seeing a possible "wintry mix" for the central Puget Sound area — or maybe something else entirely.

"We could also get a major snow dump. Or we could get mixed rain and snow. We could get freezing rain over the south Sound. A lot of uncertainty," he wrote in a post on Sunday.

The region is under a winter weather advisory from 11 a.m. Monday to 6 p.m. Tuesday. Even that advisory was uncertain about how much snow we'll get.

"Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches expected. Precipitation will turn to rain late in the afternoon. Snowfall accumulations may be heavier in the Seattle metro area and extend into the evening hours if the warm air moving in from the south arrives slower than expected," the advisory says.

Patch file photo/Neal McNamara