NOAA Unveils Washington's Winter Weather Outlook

SEATTLE, WA — NOAA released an official winter outlook Thursday, predicting a higher likelihood of warmer-than-average temperatures and equal chances for low, normal or high amounts of precipitation in Washington. According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, some areas may still see a colder-than-average winter due to neutral conditions providing for some uncertainty. In neutral years, forecasters rely more on long-term trends and account for climate patterns introducing some variability.

"Without either El Nino or La Nina conditions, short-term climate patterns like the Arctic Oscillation will drive winter weather and could result in large swings in temperature and precipitation," said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center.

NOAA says predicting short-term climate patterns with certainty is only possible a couple weeks in advance. Earlier this month, a Seattle weather blogger mused that snowfall could come to the lowlands as early as November. He cited two factors that have allowed for it in the past: the potential for a "blocking pattern" over Alaska forcing cold air into the northwest, and this year's neutral conditions, which have set the table for some of our region's most notable November snow events.

NOAA's seasonal outlook does not predict snowfall accumulations because forecasters say accurate projections are generally not possible more than a week out. The Climate Prediction Center will release an updated outlook November 21st. Earlier long-range forecasts from AccuWeather, the Farmers' Almanac and the Old Farmer's Almanac all reached conflicting conclusions.