As Smoke Returns To Washington, Experts Hopeful Most Stays Aloft

SEATTLE, WA — Southerly winds are again fanning California wildfire smoke toward Washington, renewing air quality concerns across Puget Sound. Thankfully, this time, forecasters are hopeful impacts on the ground will be much less severe and mercifully brief.

The National Weather Service held a conference call with local air quality agencies Tuesday, weighing the different smoke models to best predict what may lie ahead. Forecasters believe the new smoke should largely remain above the surface, preventing the major air quality impacts seen earlier in September.

The Department of Ecology's smoke forecast shows "moderate" air quality Wednesday for much of Western Washington. According to NWS Seattle, some monitoring stations could stay in the "good" range, while those at higher elevations are more likely to see stronger effects.

Forecasters said the latest round of smoke is unlikely to be anything like the "super-massive" smoke event, and should soon move out of the region.

Ranil Dhammapala, one of the state's leading smoke experts, posted a detailed outlook on the Washington Smoke Blog, beginning with five key takeaways:

• Starting Tuesday evening, there will be a little smoke in western WA. Not expecting populated areas to get worse than Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups, although Moderate will be the most common.
• Higher elevations will see more smoke.
• This will not be a prolonged event. Please keep an eye on the smoke forecast.
• Get ready to enjoy some resplendent sunsets
• Hardly any impacts expected east of the Cascades

Dhammapala also explained how state forecasters landed on their outlook, between the varying models.

"Discussing with the National Weather Service offices and air quality agencies, we feel that the HRRR smoke model injected too much smoke into the air and is trying to offload a generous portion of that in our backyard. We're not buying it. Most other models are (i) working with less smoke and (ii) keeping a lot of it aloft. This is consistent with satellite imagery, ground based air quality monitoring data and the vertical temperature structure of several models."

Other factors working in our favor, Dhammapala said, include less smoke overall and a temperature inversion preventing most of it from mixing downward. Forecasters expect shifting winds will allow for the smoke to move out of the region by Friday.

Live updates on air quality can be found via the Puget Sound Clean Air Agency, AirNow and Department of Ecology websites, along with the daily smoke forecast. New information will continue to be posted on the Washington Smoke Blog.