Washington Sees Fastest Coronavirus Growth Since March: Report

SEATTLE — Washington's third wave of coronavirus cases continues to grow, alongside a noticeable uptick in hospitalizations, according to the state's latest situation report.

On Wednesday, the Washington State Department of Health shared the Institute for Disease Modeling's latest findings, including some sobering statistics on illness risk over the holidays and concerning projections for the state's health care system if the virus's trajectory continues unabated.

"We are, right now, at just such a critical time where this is probably the most important time we've had so far in these nine months or ten months of this," said John Wiesman, state Secretary of Health. "As cases continue to rise, each of us must take immediate action to avoid catastrophic consequences. Left unchecked, the spike in cases will overwhelm our health care system."

The state reported more than 1,300 new COVID-19 infections Wednesday, and daily case counts have not dropped below 1,000 since Nov. 3. New records have been broken repeatedly in recent days.

Earlier in the week, Gov. Jay Inslee placed new restrictions on businesses and gatherings, tailored to curb the number of social interactions, particularly indoors. The order prohibits most activities that include people outside the immediate household, caps capacity at retail and grocery stores and limits restaurants to takeout or outdoor service until at least Dec. 14.

"I really, as the Secretary of Health, urge everyone in the state to closely follow the new requirements," Wiesman said. "At this point in time, don't have people in your home who are outside your household, even close family and friends."

Hospitalizations rise as Washington sees fastest coronavirus growth since March

Dr. Kathy Lofy, the state health officer, highlighted several areas of concern apparent in the latest data. Researchers found a "very steep increase" in cases continuing on both sides of the Cascades and a dramatic increase in hospitalizations in Western Washington.

Looking at the virus's effective reproductive number — an estimate of how many people an infected person will pass the disease onto — Lofy said both sides of the state are now experiencing the fastest growth rate since March.

The strain on hospitals is a key indicator the state closely monitors, and Wednesday's report showed a sharp increase in the number of hospital beds and ICU beds now occupied by COVID-19 patients, which can quickly affect the ability to seek care for any ailment.

Dr. Elizabeth Wako, the chief operating officer at Swedish First Hill in Seattle, said her hospital is already seeing clear warning signs. Amid a surge in admissions, the hospital has moved to limit some elective surgeries to free up resources for more patients.

"The cases here at First Hill, which is our flagship hospital within Swedish, have tripled since Halloween," Wako said. "Just this morning, we admitted 10 patients in five hours. That is exponential for us."

More than 150 daily hospitalizations possible if trajectory continues

The IDM report also projected future hospital admissions, should the current level of transmission persist, and compared them to the success that could be achieved by December if the governor's orders are followed.

"If our outbreak continues to grow...we, in a few weeks, will be having almost 150 people admitted to our hospitals every day," Lofy said. "If the Nov. 16 restrictions that the governor recently announced are as successful as they were back in March, we can reverse this trend."

Researchers plot the odds of infection by Thanksgiving

Accounting for the latest trends, researchers also plotted out the odds for at least one person to have COVID-19 at a gathering on Thanksgiving Day. The model found the chances of someone having already been infected to be around 15 percent for a group of 15 — or odds of about 1 in 6.

"What we're trying to show is that, as transmission rates increase in our communities...the risk of acquiring COVID-19 increases with every activity we do," Lofy said. "This is really the time that we all need to think about staying home as much as possible. Every activity that you do out in the community can carry some risk."

Lacy Fehrenbach, Washington's deputy secretary of health for COVID-19 response, said the risk of infection at such gatherings is two-fold: the direct health impacts to those who attend and the broader risk to the community from new chains of transmission.

"We're sharing this to help and show how we're all interconnected, and the disease transmission that we're seeing results from the sum of our collective choices and interactions," Fehrenbach said. "Every single interaction matters. This is why we must limit our gatherings."

Related:

• Tips for safer gatherings from the Department of Health
• Thanksgiving recommendations from the CDC