Washington's Vaccine Forecast Improves: More Doses In April

SEATTLE — One day after Washington extended vaccine eligibility to another 2 million residents, and just two weeks before everyone 16 and older will qualify for immunizations, the federal forecast for deliveries is getting brighter.

The Washington State Department of Health updated its three-week federal outlook Thursday, showing a record number of doses in shipments next week, including more than 100,000 more doses of the single-dose Johnson & Johnson vaccine.

Here's the updated federal vaccine forecast for Washington

• Week of April 4: 458,340 total doses (285,320 first doses, 173,020 second doses)
  • This includes 201,240 doses of Pfizer, 148,100 doses of Moderna, and 109,000 doses of Johnson & Johnson.
• Week of April 11: 412,570 total doses (217,320 first doses, 195,250 second doses)
  • This includes 223,470 doses of Pfizer, 148,100 doses of Moderna, and 41,000 doses of Johnson & Johnson.
• Week of April 18: 390,340 total doses (217,320 first doses, 173,020 second doses)
  • This includes 201,240 doses of Pfizer, 148,100 doses of Moderna, and 41,000 doses of Johnson & Johnson.

Michele Roberts, the state's lead vaccine planner, said the federal government typically updates allotment expectations each Tuesday, and it is likely that the forecasts for April 11 and April 18 will increase as the dates draw near.

Even as eligibility expands dramatically, state health officials said steady growth in shipments is helping Washington make headway in meeting the heightened demand.

"It's hard to believe it's already April, and the start of the month is looking good as far as vaccine supply," Roberts said. "We're closing the gap between the amount of vaccine ordered each week and the amount in our state allocation. This is, really, a very promising trend, and we look forward to seeing that continue."

During Thursday's news briefing, health officials shared a new chart showing a shrinking gap between doses needed and doses received, from about 260,000 in January to 28,000 at the end of March. Improved supply levels will be essential in keeping up with appointments, particularly as eligibility widens across the state on April 15.

As of March 29, more than 3.3 million doses have been administered across the state, with close to 28 percent of the state's population receiving at least one shot and nearly 17 percent fully vaccinated, according to state data. People ages 65 and above make up the highest share, with 73 percent having received at least one dose, and 55 percent fully immunized.

Even with the progress among vulnerable groups, state health officials estimated about 300,000 people 65 and older still need their first shot and encouraged residents to reach out to older friends and relatives to help them schedule an appointment.

For younger groups, the Pfizer vaccine is the only shot currently authorized for use in 16 and 17-year-olds, and kids will need to get their parents' consent before an appointment. Earlier in the week, Pfizer announced its vaccine was shown to be 100 percent effective in kids between the ages of 12 and 15, and the company plans to seek approval for that group through the Food and Drug Administration.

Among adults, a new study from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found people who received both doses of the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines were 90 percent less likely to become infected with COVID-19, two weeks after their second shot. Even after one dose, infection risks were reduced by 80 percent, even in high-risk settings, the study found.

During Thursday's briefing, Washington's health officials also took a few minutes to reiterate existing federal guidance for fully vaccinated people and caution against travel until the wider population is more broadly immunized.

Need an appointment? Washington residents can check their eligibility status and find open spots using the state's Vaccine Locator tool.