What The 1918 Flu Can Teach Washington About Coronavirus

SEATTLE — With an unusual Thanksgiving nearly upon us, the Washington State Department of Health is highlighting some troubling parallels to a pandemic that plagued the Seattle region more than a century ago.

The blog post, published Tuesday, takes readers back to 1918 when Washington was in the throes of an influenza outbreak that would ultimately infect roughly a third of the world's population. Earlier in the month, Crosscut's Knute Berger explored similarities to then and now, chronicling the period after lockdowns lifted, mask mandates eased and business as usual resumed prematurely, leading to a deadly resurgence in the wake of the holidays.

"Impatience, misplaced optimism, a lack of understanding of how the disease was spread, skepticism of authority and public health pronouncements — all played into the public largely discarding what kept them safe," Berger wrote. "There were tragic consequences."

In its blog, the Department of Health writes:

And just like we flattened the curve in April 2020, these precautions worked to control the flu in 1918. In fact, they worked so well that it looked like the epidemic was over, and the city ended the restrictions after five weeks.

So people celebrated Thanksgiving 1918 together, in person, with their loved ones. And then they celebrated their winter holidays in person too.

And the flu came back.

Of all the people who died of the 1918–1919 flu in Seattle, more than half died after the holiday season. After the restrictions were lifted, and after the epidemic had been declared over.

In 2020, a third wave in coronavirus cases continues to gain momentum, as daily cases and hospitalizations reach new highs and health experts worry a surge in deaths will not be not far behind.

Washington again broke its daily record for new cases Tuesday, with 3,482 illnesses reported, and active hospitalizations have increased by about 200 patients over the last week, according to state data.

The governor and public health leaders have urged Washingtonians to keep Thanksgiving celebrations small and limited to people you live with to help prevent a surge that could quickly overwhelm the health care system and lead to preventable deaths.

Related: As Thanksgiving Approaches, WA Issues One Last Plea To Stay Home

Compared to 1918, the DOH said there are some advantages more than 100 years later, including a better understanding of public health practices:

"We know that holiday gatherings during a pandemic can make many people sick and even die. We know not to gather indoors with people outside our household. We know to always wear a face covering when we're around people who don't live with us."

Another piece of hope on the horizon is the pending arrival of effective vaccines, which may be ready for initial distribution as early as December.

"We are hearing great news about developments towards a COVID-19 vaccine," the state Department of Health wrote. "We are hopeful that there will be a safe and effective vaccine against COVID-19 available before the end of the year. Even then, it still may be many months before enough doses of vaccine are available for everyone who needs it. But, unlike in 1918, we can see an end in sight."