Will Western Washington Have A White Christmas In 2021?

SEATTLE — For some, the holidays simply aren’t the same without a blanket of fresh, white snow on the ground. But what are the odds of actually experiencing this simple pleasure on Christmas Day in the Evergreen State?

A white Christmas could be hard to come by in some parts of the United States this year, according to newly released forecasts by prognosticators including Farmers’ Almanac and Accuweather.

Meanwhile, other states face an even greater chance for snow thanks to La Niña, a meteorological phenomenon during which sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean drop to lower-than-average levels.

La Niña played a major role in this year’s predictions, according to Accuweather, tending to steer storms northward and cutting off moisture to the southern portion of the United States.

Related 2021 winter coverage:

• NOAA 2021 Winter Outlook: Here's What's In Store For Puget Sound
• November Rain Helps Topple Seattle Records As Winter Draws Near

So what does this mean for Washington this Christmas, and who might see some fresh snow for the holiday weekend? As usual, the odds are vastly different on either side of the Cascades.

It’s possible, according to Farmers’ Almanac’s Christmas 2021 forecast, but the odds are less a little less hopeful for Puget Sound. Either way, the holiday weekend looks like it will be rather cold. Overall, the Farmers' Almanac calls for "fair but chilly" weather for Christmas Day and the holiday weekend.

Those in the Northeast, Ohio Valley, Great Lakes and Midwest can expect a frigidly cold Christmas. Those in the Northeast may also see scattered snow showers. In the Southeast, it will be dry and cold through that weekend. States in the northern Plains can expect fair skies and fair temperatures, while some Southern states including Texas and New Mexico should brace for cold weather.

If no snow falls on Christmas Day, will there at least be snow on the ground? For Washington, it depends.

Using three decades worth of climatological measurements, the Farmers’ Almanac annually predicts the probabilities that a snow depth of at least 1 inch will be recorded on Christmas Day. This year, the probability is between 10 and 25 percent for those living west of the Cascades, and closer to 50 to 60 percent for portions of central and eastern Washington. New snow over the mountain passes is basically a guarantee.

In the Sierras, Cascades, the leeward side of the Great Lakes and northern New England, Christmas snow cover is a near certainty, Farmers’ Almanac says. In these regions, most precipitation in late autumn and early winter falls as snow, making the probability of snowfall exceed 25 percent.

At higher elevations in the Rocky Mountains and at many locations between the northern Rockies and New England, the probability of snow on the ground is more than 50 percent.

For those who opt for a green Christmas, the best places to be in late December will be Southern California, the lower elevations of the Southwest, and Florida.

Of course, Farmers’ Almanac isn’t the only expert in predicting holiday weekend weather. Accuweather also released its 2021 holiday forecast this week, and its predictions are similar, if not a little more optimistic on the snow front.

According to its analysis, Washington and Oregon land among the states with some of the best chances for a white Christmas, with odds higher than normal, largely thanks to La Niña.

Accuweather's long-range forecasts show a chance for a little snow possible on the winter solstice, with overnight temperatures just above freezing in Seattle. The next few days in the holiday week look chilly, too, topping out at 40 degrees on Dec. 23. Specific forecasts tend to be most accurate just a few days in advance, so residents should keep a close eye on the evolving expectation as the holidays draw near.

The fascination with a white Christmas was likely popularized by the writings of Charles Dickens. The depiction of a snow-covered Christmas season in his 1843 classic “A Christmas Carol,” and a number of his other short stories, was reportedly influenced by memories of his childhood.

The song “White Christmas,” written by Irving Berlin and sung by Bing Crosby, is among the best-selling singles of all time. The tune nostalgically speaks of a white Christmas and has since become embedded in American holiday traditions.