Two Polls, Two Results: Gov. Scott Walker Ekes Ahead, Lags Behind

WISCONSIN -- With less than one month to go before election day, two major polls released show stability in Wisconsin's Senate race, and a hint of controversy over Wisconsin's race for Governor.

Republican Gov. Scott Walker faces Democratic challenger Tony Evers in Walker's bid for a third term in Wisconsin's highest office. According to a Marquette Poll released this week, Walker has pulled slightly ahead of Evers, but a second major poll has him far behind.

In the Senate race, incumbent Democrat Tammy Baldwin enjoys a comfortable margin over her Republican challenger, Wisconsin State Senator Leah Vukmir, who has held office since 2011.

Marquette Poll Has Walker, Baldwin Ahead

In a Marquette University Law School poll released on Oct. 10, Walker leads Evers 47 percent to 46 percent among likely voters. That's a big change from September, when Evers was favored 49 percent to 44 percent over Walker.

Baldwin leads among likely voters with 53 percent over Vukmir's 43 percent. In September poll, Baldwin received 53 percent and Vukmir was supported by 42 percent.

When accounting for the Marquette Poll's sharp change from a month ago, Wisconsin Public Radio says it has to do with the composition of the people who were surveyed.

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"The sample for the survey was more Republican than Marquette's last poll in September. Self-identified Republicans outnumbered Democrats by 3 percentage points in October. In September, the survey sample was more Democratic by 1 percent"

Yet, despite big changes in the Governor's race, the Senate race remained pretty much the same.

"Party is something, but it's not everything," Marquette pollster Charles Franklin said in the WPR report. "It looks like the governor's race moved but the Senate race did not move, and that's despite the change in the sample."

The Marquette poll was conducted between Oct. 3-7 with 1,000 registered voters in Wisconsin who were interviewed by cell phone or landline. This poll has a margin of error of 3.6 percent. 799 likely voters were also queried, and the margin of error is also 3.9 percent.

NBC Poll Has Evers, Baldwin Far Ahead

Meanwhile, in an Oct. 11 NBC/Marist poll, Walker trails Evers by double digits in his re-election bid, while Baldwin maintains a wide margin over Vukmir.

According to the poll, Evers is garnering 53 percent of likely voters while Walker gets 43 percent among likely voters. When those figures are widened out to registered voters, Evers leads Walker by a margin of 52 percent to 43 percent over Walker. That nine point advantage is down from Evers' 13 percent lead in the same poll conducted in July.

In Wisconsin's Senate race, the poll finds that Baldwin is favored by 54 percent of likely voters, where Vukmir is favored by 40 percent.

It should be noted that the NBC/Marist poll was conducted via landline and cell phone interviews from Sept. 30 through Oct. 3. 781 registered voters were queried for a margin of error of 3.7 percent. 571 likely voters were queried for a margin of error of 4.8 percent.

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