February 2012 Economic Dashboard Released

The February edition of the St. Croix Valley Economic Dashboard has been released by the Center for Economic Research (CER) at UW-River Falls and St. Croix Economic Development Corporation (SCEDC). The dashboard is a snapshot of the economic condition of the labor, consumer and housing markets in the three county St. Croix Valley (Polk, St. Croix, and Pierce). It presents the latest available data in one convenient package (note: most regional data is available with a one or two month delay). The Dashboard can be viewed on the CER’s website at www.uwrf.edu/cer.

Dr. Logan Kelly, director of the CER, conducts research for the Dashboard and offered his observations:

State and National Indicators

“Nationally, the economy grew at a seasonally adjusted annually rate of 2.8 percent during the fourth quarter of 2011, up 0.40 percentage points from the previous quarter. Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 243,000 in January, and the unemployment rate, at 8.3 percent, continued to trend down. Job gains occurred in transportation and warehousing, retail trade, manufacturing, health care, and mining. The public sector, though, continued its downward trend, losing 14,000 jobs in January, and public sector job losses remain a significant short-run threat to continued recovery.”

“Wisconsin’s unemployment rate was down slightly to 7.1 percent in December, which was lead by a 0.2 percent increase in employment and a very minor decrease in labor force, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) survey of households.  However, the BLS survey of employers finds that Wisconsin lost 1,700 jobs. It is not uncommon for theses two surveys to conflict slightly because they are measuring different aspects of the economy. The household survey focuses on people living in the state, thus for calculating the unemployment rate, we use household survey data. The employer survey focuses on people working in the state, thus we use employer survey data to calculate job creation.” 

“The Philadelphia Fed’s Coincident Index of economic activity indicated the state economy contracted at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.43 percent, and the Philadelphia Fed’s Leading Index is predicting a negative 0.51 percent growth rate over the next year. The Coincident and Leading indices peeked in March 2011 and January 2011, respectively.”

See Midwest Leading Indicators Table.

Labor Market

“The Wisconsin economy lost 1,700 jobs (net) in December, and has gained only 3,200 jobs over the last year.”

See Job Creation in Wisconsin Table. 

“Job losses occurred in many sectors, but a few sectors saw strong growth. The public sector gained 2,200 jobs, the first gain in five months.  Manufacturing also grew by 3,300 jobs, along with trade, transportation & utilities sector gaining 2,700 jobs, and construction gaining 1,900 jobs.  All other sectors of the economy lost jobs with the leisure and hospitality sector losing the most at 6,100 jobs. Overall, the private sector lost 3,900 jobs and the public sector gained 2,200 jobs.”

See Job Creation by Sector Table.

“Conditions in the regional labor market are faring better than the state average. The regional unemployment rate rose in December by 0.37 percentage point to 5.9 percent, lower than the state average of 7.1 percent and comparable to the Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington MN-WI Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) unemployment rate of 5.5 percent. The St. Croix Valley’s relative economic strength, as compared to the rest of the state, appears to be driven by close proximity to the Twin Cities.”

Housing Market

The Case-Shiller Home Price index for Chicago and nationally decreased for the month of November.  The Case-Shiller Home Price index for Minneapolis increased for the month of November for the first time in four months.  Nationally the home price index has decreased every one of the past seven months. The median home price increased and number of homes sold decreased in the region for the month of January. The number of homes sold was 6.7 percent lower than one year ago and the median home price is 8.7 percent higher than one year ago.

Local Observations

“The St. Croix Valley’s labor force is up 0.4 percent from one year ago, which mirrors the increase in the 13-county metro area,” said William Rubin, executive director of St. Croix EDC. The December 2011 unemployment rates are down from one year ago, even though they rose slightly from November to December. While the number of homes sold in the valley in January 2012 declined from one year ago by 6.7 percent, the median sales price of those homes is up 8.7 percent one year ago. The registration of new vehicles, perhaps an indicator of consumer confidence, was down throughout the valley for December 2011. Just like a yo-yo, sales tax distributions to the counties are up one month and down the next.”

Notes

Wisconsin’s St. Croix Valley is comprised of St. Croix, Polk, and Pierce counties. All three counties are located along the Wisconsin-Minnesota border. Two of the three counties, St. Croix and Pierce, are included in the Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington MN-WI metropolitan area, a 13-county region with of population of 3.3 million residents.For additional information on the February edition of the St. Croix Valley Economic Dashboard, contact Dr. Logan Kelly at cer@uwrf.edu or (715) 425-4993 or William Rubin at bill@stcroixedc.com or (715) 381-4383.