June 2012 Economic Dashboard Released

The June 2012 edition of the St. Croix Valley Economic Dashboard has been released by the Center for Economic Research (CER) at UW-River Falls and St. Croix Economic Development Corporation (SCEDC). The dashboard is a snapshot of the economic condition of the labor, consumer and housing markets in the six county St. Croix Valley, which includes the Wisconsin counties of Polk, St. Croix, Pierce, and Dunn and the Minnesota counties of Chisago, Ramsey and Washington. It presents the latest available data in one convenient package (note: most regional data is available with a one or two month delay).

The Dashboard can be viewed on the CER’s website at www.uwrf.edu/cer.

Dr. Logan Kelly, director of the CER, conducts research for the Dashboard and offered his observations:

State and National Indicators:

“The U.S. seasonally adjusted annual growth rate for the first quarter of 2012 was revised down slightly to 1.9 percent, which is 1.5 percentage points higher than the previous quarter. Nonfarm payroll employment changed little in May, increasing by 69,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate was essentially unchanged at 8.2 percent. Employment increased in health care, transportation and warehousing, and wholesale trade but declined in construction. The public sector showed a slight decrease posting a loss of about 13,000 jobs.”

“Wisconsin’s unemployment rate decreased slightly to 6.7 percent in April, which was caused by a 0.2 percent increase in employment and 0.1 percent increase in labor force, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) survey of households.  The BLS survey of households finds that Wisconsin has gained 27,400 jobs over the last year.  However, the BLS survey of employers finds that Wisconsin lost 21,400 jobs over the last year.  The two surveys seem to indicate that much of improvement in the Wisconsin labor market is driven by job creation in neighboring states, not within Wisconsin.”

“Minnesota’s unemployment rate was down slightly to 5.6 percent in April, which was led by a 0.1 percent increase in employment and a 0.1 percent decrease in labor force, according to the BLS survey of households.  The BLS survey of employers finds that Minnesota has gained 23,300 jobs over the last year.”

“The Philadelphia Fed’s Coincident Index of economic activity indicated the Wisconsin economy grew at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.21 percent in April, and the Leading Index is predicting a positive annual growth rate of 2.43 percent over next the six months, which is still too low to expect meaningful labor market recovery. The Minnesota economy grew at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.73 percent, and the Leading Index is predicting a positive annual growth rate of 2.21 percent over next the six months.”

Labor Market:

“The Wisconsin economy lost 1,400 jobs (net) in the month of April and has lost 21,400 jobs since April 2011. The Minnesota economy lost 2,900 jobs (net) in April but has gained 23,300 over the last year.”

“In April, Wisconsin lost jobs in all major sectors but three. The biggest gain, 6,900 jobs, was in the public sector. While April was the best month in some time for the public sector, Wisconsin has still lost 10,300 jobs over the last year. The most significant job loss came in the Leisure and Hospitality sector (5,700 jobs lost).”

“Minnesota also had job losses in all but three major sectors. Minnesota gained jobs in Education and Health Services (+1,700), Financial Activities (+2,000), and Manufacturing (+2,400). The most significant job loss came in the Trade, Transportation and Utilities (-3,100)”

See Wisconsin and Minnesota Job Creation by Sector

“Conditions in the regional labor market are faring better than the state average. The regional unemployment rate fell in April by 1.04 percentage points to 5.4 percent, lower than the state average in Wisconsin of 6.7 percent and the Minnesota average of 5.6 percent. The data suggests that the St. Croix Valley’s relative economic strength is due to proximity to the Twin Cities.”

Local Observations:

“Compared to one year ago, the unemployment rate is down across the board, from individual counties, to the greater St. Croix Valley, the Twin Cities metro area, and the states of Wisconsin and Minnesota,” said William Rubin, executive director of St. Croix EDC. “Likewise, total employment has trended upward compared to a year ago. The labor force shows a mixed bag, meaning it is down in many counties, but up in Wisconsin and the metro area. County sales tax distributions are up from last month and from a year ago. Wisconsin’s change from May 2011 is up 37.7 percent and distributions in the 4-county region of St. Croix, Polk, Pierce and Dunn are up 26.5 percent. Activity with home buying has picked up, too.”

The Wisconsin/Minnesota St. Croix Valley is comprised of St. Croix, Polk, Pierce and Dunn counties in Wisconsin and Chisago, Ramsey and Washington counties in Minnesota. All seven counties are located at or near the Wisconsin-Minnesota border. Six of the seven counties, St. Croix, Pierce, Ramsey, Washington and Dakota, are included in the Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington MN-WI metropolitan area, a 13-county region with of population of 3.3 million residents. For additional information on the June edition of the St. Croix Valley Economic Dashboard, contact Dr. Logan Kelly at cer@uwrf.edu or (715) 425-4993 or William Rubin at bill@stcroixedc.com or (715) 381-4383.