May 2013 St. Croix Valley Dashboard Released

The May 2013 edition of the St. Croix Valley Economic Dashboard has been released by the Center for Economic Research at UW-River Falls and St. Croix Economic Development Corporation. The Dashboard is a snapshot of the economic condition of the labor, consumer, and housing markets in the seven county St. Croix Valley, which includes the Wisconsin counties of Polk, St. Croix, Pierce, and Dunn and the Minnesota counties of Chisago, Ramsey, and Washington. It presents the latest available data in one convenient package (note: most regional data is available with a one or two month delay).

Dr. Logan Kelly, director of the CER, conducts research for the Dashboard and offered his observations:

What’s New

“Be sure to visit the CER main page to check out the ‘What’s News’ section. This section contains current economic news as well as links to reliable media coverage. Keep checking back for new stories and features.”

The U.S. Economy

Output: “Overall, the economic outlook is strengthening. Real GDP grew at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.5%, which is slower than the 3.0% most economists think is necessary to reduce unemployment, but real consumption (growing 3.2%), and real investment (growing 12.25%) where both strong. This is very encouraging for growth over the next 12 months. Fiscal austerity continues to be a drag on the economy.”

Labor Market: “Nationally, the job market moved sideways in the month of April. Total nonfarm employment increased by 165,000 while the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 7.5% according to the bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation Report. The most significant job gains occurred in the Professional and Business Services, Food Services and Drinking places, and Health Care sectors – adding 73,000, 38,000 and 19,000 jobs respectively. Employment changed little over the month in Construction, with small offsetting movements in the residential and nonresidential components. Manufacturing employment was unchanged in April. Initial claims for unemployment at the end of April were 13,000 claims lower than they were at the same time in 2012.”

National Inflation: “The Consumer Price Index (CPI), an inflationary indicator based on the average price of a fixed basket of consumer goods, remained low, show just a 1.1% increase in April from twelve months previous. Continued low CPI makes it likely that the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates or take steps to reduce the monetary base to normal levels within the next three to six months. Although none of the current inflation indicators point to near-term inflationary pressure, I expect the Federal Reserve to begin thinking about increasing interest rates before the end of the year.”

Wisconsin and Minnesota

Employment: “Wisconsin and Minnesota both saw significant job loss in April, with Minnesota losing 11,400 jobs and Wisconsin losing 24,100 jobs. Nearly every sector lost jobs in both states, and the Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington MN-WI MSA lost 5,800 jobs. The unemployment rate in both states remained essentially unchanged at 7.1% in Wisconsin and 5.3% in Minnesota.”

About the St. Croix Valley

The Wisconsin/Minnesota St. Croix Valley is comprised of St. Croix, Polk, Pierce and Dunn counties in Wisconsin and Chisago, Ramsey and Washington counties in Minnesota. All seven counties are located at or near the Wisconsin-Minnesota border. Five of the seven counties (St. Croix, Pierce, Chisago, Ramsey and Washington) are included in the Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington MN-WI metropolitan area, a 13-county region with of population of 3.3 million residents.

For additional information on the St. Croix Valley Economic Dashboard, contact Dr. Logan Kelly at cer@uwrf.edu or (715) 425-4993 or William Rubin at bill@stcroixedc.com or (715) 381-4383.